A recent report by Marsh McLennan’s reinsurance broking arm, Guy Carpenter, reveals that expanded reinsurance capacity available at the key January 1, 2026, reinsurance renewals, accelerated softening of pricing across many lines of business.
Ahead of the crucial 1.1 renewal season, there’s been ample discussion around rate movements. According to Guy Carpenter, for property catastrophe placements, buyers were able to achieve double-digit risk-adjusted rate reductions for non-loss programmes.
At the same time, buyers of protection sought better risk sharing, including aggregates and catastrophe quota shares.
The reinsurance broker states that investor appetite for insurance-linked securities (ILS) also contributed to the softer property market conditions at 1.1, noting that cat bond issuance broke records in 2025 as 15 new sponsors entered the market.
Meanwhile, casualty reinsurance renewal outcomes were driven by region, structure, historical results, and the scale of the outwards portfolio, says the report. Generally, programme renewals were stable with some cases of improvement for clients with proportional structures who demonstrated portfolio discipline and strong overall performance.
Additionally, Guy Carpenter reports that the cyber market continued to evolve from quota share and aggregate protection to treaties with specific events, risks, and hybrid designs, at the renewals.
Dean Klisura, President and Chief Executive Officer, Guy Carpenter, commented, “Despite global trade tensions and increased regulatory scrutiny, reinsurers have grown capital due largely to strong retained earnings. This has allowed clients to benefit from lower prices and a wider range of innovative solutions to meet their rapidly evolving needs.”
According to the report, reinsurer return on equity is estimated to be 17%, with dedicated reinsurance capital expanding by another 9% in 2025.
In 2025, Guy Carpenter notes that reinsurers had a lower share of global insured catastrophe losses, at just 11%, compared to a 20% average for the period before the market reset in 2023.
This resulted in higher returns even though the estimated insured catastrophe losses for 2025 stand at $121 billion, which is 18% below the five-year inflation-adjusted average.
All in all, excess capital positions, profitable underwriting results, and property reinsurance rates drove reinsurers’ appetite for growth, says the broker.
