The January 2026 winter storm impacting a large swath of the US (labelled Fern by The Weather Channel) has set various records across winter weather perils and is expected to generate several hundreds of millions of dollars in insured losses, according to independent re/insurance broker BMS.
Winter Storm Fern has affected more than 180 million people across the US and Canada, with just under one million left without power at one point.
As of 27th January, snow cover shrouded 56% of the continental US. As much as six inches of snow fell across 26 states, from New Mexico to New England, while 13 states recorded at least a foot of snow. In many areas, it marked the largest snowstorm in a decade or more. Freezing rain and ice accumulation were also significant perils associated with the storm.
Andrew Siffert, Senior Vice President / Senior Meteorologist at BMS, noted that determining the overall insurance industry impact remains challenging, as winter storms are among the most complex perils for the industry and one of the most difficult for catastrophe risk models. Due to their multi-peril nature and the way these hazards interact, loss calculations are often complicated. Hazards frequently include peak wind gusts, ice load, snow load and freezing temperatures.
BMS said Winter Storm Fern appears to combine all of these risk factors, making it potentially costly.
Siffert highlighted that winter storm losses typically account for around 6% of the overall modelled average annual loss from catastrophe risk models. Since 2023, the insurance industry has experienced an average of nine winter storm events per year, with average losses of approximately $375 million. Over the same period, around 24% of events resulted in insured losses exceeding $500 million.
Higher insured losses are often associated with storms affecting more urban population areas and triggering cascading losses due widespread power outages.
Siffert said, “Luckily, weather memories are short, and the memories of 2021 or 2022 have helped lead to loss-prevention strategies for extreme winter weather. This winter storm was well-advertised in advance, giving policyholders across all lines of business plenty of time to prepare by taking precautionary steps to limit winter weather-related losses. BMS Group is an IBHS member and has a wealth of resources on building resilience against winter weather.
“Another silver lining to insurance losses from this event is that some of the largest population areas were not impacted by severe ice as previously feared. Areas like Dallas and Atlanta seemed to dodge the harshest impact of the ice storm. However, with so many without power, the rural nature of the impacts shows just how extensive and impressive the number of outages is. Severe ice storms impacting rural areas can still add up to insurance industry loss.”
Given the large swath of ice storm impacts from this storm, BMS expects insured losses from Winter Storm Fern to add up to several hundreds of millions of dollars.
Siffert reiterated that winter storm losses can be complicated, with this event further complicated by the extended cold just now occurring.
“The extended cold, coupled with widespread power outages, will add to the longer claim period from this winter storm and complicate the date of loss. The extended cold will also contribute to ice dam build-up in many areas that received significant snow over the last few days, once again delaying claims and complicating the date of loss, which will be further impacted by next week’s forecast,” explained Siffert.
