Howden Re, the reinsurance and strategic advisory division of Howden, has launched its fourth edition of the Brazil and Global Climate Impacts report, created in collaboration with MeteoIA, a climate analytics firm.
This latest report provides an in-depth look at Brazil’s changing climate patterns, offering a review of the last quarter’s weather events and a forecast for the coming months.
This publication continues Howden Re Brazil’s series, which explores the evolving climate and its increasing importance to Brazil’s expanding insurance sector.
As Latin American economies grow, Brazil’s insurance market is flourishing. Previously limited by a closed reinsurance market until 2007, the sector is now experiencing rapid development. This growth increases the demand for sophisticated data and analytics to assess and manage the risks associated with Brazil’s changing climate.
The report highlights significant variations in rainfall across the country. In the northern regions, such as Roraima and Maranhão, rainfall was excessive due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
On the other hand, central and southern Brazil, including Rio Grande do Sul and parts of Mato Grosso do Sul, suffered from severe drought and heat stress.
February brought above-average rainfall to Amazonas and Pará, while March saw notable rainfall deficits in Goiás, Bahia, and the Southeast.
Several cities, including Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Maranhão, Bahia, and Amazonas, set new 24-hour rainfall records, with some surpassing 60% of their monthly averages in a single day.
These intense, localised storms caused flooding, revealing the vulnerabilities of urban areas to rapid, high-intensity weather events.
Following a period of drought, the rivers of the Amazon began to flood, with the Rio Negro in Manaus showing some recovery, although still below historic seasonal levels, peaking at 21m.
Meanwhile, in Acre, extensive flooding displaced hundreds of residents, illustrating the dramatic shift from water scarcity to excess. Extreme heat also marked the quarter, with Rio de Janeiro’s heat index reaching over 52°C in February, and São Paulo setting record-high temperatures for the summer.
This pattern of intense temperatures extends beyond Brazil, as January 2025 was recorded as the hottest month globally, reaching 13.23°C—1.75°C higher than pre-industrial levels—while both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice hit record lows.
Looking forward, the report notes that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) anticipates a shift from a low-intensity La Niña to a neutral phase starting in March, which could continue to drive regional rainfall and temperature extremes.
South and Central-West Brazil are projected to experience below-average rainfall in April, which could affect soil moisture and impact the later stages of the first crop harvest. May and June are expected to bring above-average precipitation to Rio Grande do Sul and the Northeast, providing some relief to drought-stricken areas.
The report states that temperature anomalies are expected to intensify, with maximum temperatures in western Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul predicted to rise 2.4–3.0°C above average, potentially putting more strain on infrastructure and public health systems.
With Brazil preparing to host COP30, the need for insurance and reinsurance solutions tailored to the country’s shifting climate risks has never been more apparent.
From flood damage to drought-induced soil degradation, the report highlights the importance of continued innovation within the insurance industry to ensure broad coverage and greater access to those most vulnerable.
Antonio Jorge Da Mota Rodrigues, Head of Howden Re Brazil, said: “The first quarter of 2025 exposed both ends of Brazil’s hydrological extremes – from river overflows and urban flooding to drought and soil stress. The Brazilian insurance sector is facing an inflection point.
“While the market expands and reinsurance is becoming more widely adopted, today’s evolving environmental threat patterns require innovative solutions grounded in advanced data and analytics to help foster resilience and insure against a changing climate. COP30, held later this year in Brazil, comes at a critical time for putting new climate insurance solutions at the forefront.”
