David Flandro, Managing Director, Head of Industry Analysis and Strategic Advisory at reinsurance broker Howden Re, said the firm expects non-traditional lines to outpace the broader P&C market through 2030, and will be closely monitoring what happens to reinsurance demand.
In a recent video interview, Reinsurance News spoke with Flandro, who said that, given the current economy, several areas are expected to outpace broader P&C growth, including cyber, renewables and, in particular, data centres.
He added, “Furthermore, we know empirically from the report that P&C premium growth outpaces GDP growth, or at least it has over the last 10 years. And so, if we have a change in GDP growth pursuant to this changing global trading environment, I think that could portend good things for P&C insurance demand, even in a relatively softening pricing cycle.”
Flandro explained that the January 1st, 2026, reinsurance renewals showed a shift in the supply curve, while the demand side stayed the same.
“It’ll be really interesting, when you’re mentioning cyber, renewables, data centers, all these things, what happens to demand. And we’ll be watching that very closely,” he said.
During the interview, Flandro also spoke about macroeconomic and geopolitical trends and how these are influencing risk pricing.
He said the environment has fundamentally shifted since 2022, moving away from a long period of low inflation and depressed interest rates toward higher rates, higher yields, and elevated asset prices, which has implications on re/insurers in a number of ways.
“One of them is on the asset side of the balance sheet with running yields. But another one is very important, and it’s on the pricing and underwriting side of the balance sheet,” said Flandro.
He noted that pricing across several lines has passed its peak, including property catastrophe reinsurance, specialty lines, and cyber, at least for the moment. The focus has shifted to how far rates may fall and where they are likely to stabilise.
“Now, we did say in the report that if current conditions persist, we expect pricing trends to consist of but the real thing that people are trying to think about right now is what happens one year, three years and five years out, so they can plan, and it looks to us decidedly like the world has become a lot more risky,” said Flandro.
Watch the full video interview to hear Flandro discuss these topics and other trends transforming the re/insurance market.
