Acrisure Re, the reinsurance division of broker and fintech platform Acrisure, has forecast an above average hurricane season this year, albeit with less activity than the record 2020 and 2021 seasons.
Recent heightened hurricane activity is at least partly attributed to the current warm phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which began in 1995.
In spring 2020, for example, analysts note that the AMO reached its highest values since 1950 which was followed in 2021 by the third most active year of hurricanes on record with a total of 21 named storms.
This season however Acrisure Re Analytics currently forecasts a cooler Atlantic surface temperature than in 2021 through the key months of the 2022 hurricane season.
Acrisure Re’s predictions are broadly in line with other forecasts for the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season, such as that from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which predicts a 65% chance of an above normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2022, making it the seventh consecutive above normal season.
According to the NOAA’s data and analysis, for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1st to November 30th, there’s a 70% chance of 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes.
“The 2022 hurricane outlook indicates an above-average period of storm activity which will mean guarding against loss of life and property damage,” said Simon Hedley, CEO of Acrisure Re.
“Acrisure Re’s analytical capabilities and intellectual reach allow us to remain committed to providing sustained market leading modelling and research regarding the upcoming hurricane seasons,” Hedley added. “These methodological considerations will be of heightened importance given the impact of storm devastation in 2021. We will continue to provide updates as the season progresses.”
Ming Li, Global Head of Catastrophe Modelling, Acrisure Re, also commented: “Our 2022 hurricane outlook report reflects a consultative and collaborative approach to gain a deep understanding of the potential for catastrophic risks this summer and fall. This model enables our analytics team to operate as an extension of our clients’ risk management team and provides the basis for advice year-round.”