Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities have said that insured natural catastrophe losses are expected to be below average for the first quarter of 2020 at between $5.0 billion and $6.5 billion.
This is well below the $10 billion historical average, with very few losses, if any, likely to hit reinsurer attachment points.
Wells Fargo is estimating US losses of $2.7 billion in Q1, which again compares favourable with the $4.0 billion 10-year average for the quarter.
In terms of international losses, analysts put the industry bill in the range of $3.0 billion to $4.0 billion.
On an overall basis Wells Fargo is are lowering its non-life sector estimates to account for lower anticipated net investment income.
The firm is also adjusting its Q2 2020 estimates for lower alternative investment returns, but has made positive adjustments to reflect the low cat losses last quarter.
Alternative investment returns in Q1 could be strong for companies with higher exposure to private equity (+8%), analysts added, while hedge fund results were weak (-2%).
