U.S. pension risk transfer (PRT) activity surged in the fourth quarter of 2025, with global re/insurance broking group Aon estimating total market premiums of $45–$50 billion for the year.
According to Aon’s U.S. PRT Annual Report Preview, the firm expects there to be more premium settled in Q4’25 than in the first three quarters combined, driven by competitive pricing and growing interest in buy-ins.
Aon’s full-year forecast aligns with Legal & General Retirement America’s (LGRA) estimate of $45–$50 billion in premiums. LGRA also projects Q4’25 to be among the largest quarters to date, at an estimated $29 billion, setting the stage for H2’25 to be one of the largest on record.
The report noted that fewer jumbo transactions early in the year allowed insurers to focus their resources on smaller transactions. New insurers entering the market in 2025 increased the number of bidders. These dynamics created highly competitive pricing, with more retiree lift-outs priced below PBO than ever before.
In 2025, Aon said there was a surge in pension risk transferred via buy-ins, anticipating $15–$20 billion by year-end, compared with $3–$4 billion annually in recent years.
Activity continues to increase as buy-ins provide a way to transfer financial risk in the current attractive pricing environment.
Aon explained, “Buy-in strategies allow plan sponsors to evaluate annuity pricing and test various economic outcomes, most commonly as a precursor to plan termination. Buy-ins can also be used as an alternative investment strategy for plan sponsors looking to de-risk.
“More insurers developed their buy-in solution in 2025, with about half of the U.S. PRT market now able to participate on buy-ins. All large market insurers now have a buy-in contract, with more options also becoming available for small and mid-market transactions.”
Aon also provided a litigation update: “Lawsuits alleging a breach of fiduciary duties with respect to the selection of a particular insurer(s) in PRT transactions has been ongoing for the last two years. Through December 2025, there are lawsuits filed against 10 plan sponsors and fiduciaries. Half of these cases released decisions on filed motions to dismiss, with more requests being granted than denied. Plan sponsors are seeking appeals on cases where motions to dismiss were denied. We continue to monitor these cases as they progress through the courts.”
