Allianz Commercial, the corporate insurance division of Allianz Group, has released new findings indicating that companies worldwide are increasingly factoring extreme but plausible “Black Swan” events into their strategic planning.
In its latest analysis, Allianz Commercial describes Black Swans as rare and unforeseen incidents that cause significant economic disruption and long-term societal impact. While such events can appear predictable after the fact, they are typically unexpected at the point of occurrence.
Allianz Commercial points to historical precedents including the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center, the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to Allianz Research, the pandemic alone led to cumulative global GDP losses of around US$12 trillion between 2020 and 2023. Allianz notes that beyond immediate financial damage, such crises frequently reshape geopolitical relationships and social structures for years afterwards.
Drawing on responses from 3,338 risk management professionals across nearly 100 countries and territories for the Allianz Risk Barometer 2026, Allianz Commercial reports that 51% of respondents view a global supply chain paralysis triggered by geopolitical conflict as the most plausible Black Swan scenario affecting their business within the next five years.
Allianz Commercial states that this concern reflects mounting unease over trade fragmentation, tariffs and regional conflicts that could disrupt the movement of goods and raw materials across multiple major economies.
A global internet outage caused by a major cyber-attack or technological failure ranks second globally at 47%, according to Allianz Commercial. The company says this finding highlights rising awareness among business leaders of cyber risk, digital interdependency and artificial intelligence-related vulnerabilities.
Allianz Commercial observes that as physical and digital supply chains become increasingly interconnected, operational disruptions can spread more rapidly and with wider consequences than in the past.
In the United Kingdom, Allianz Commercial reports that fears of extreme disruption are even more pronounced. Sixty-nine per cent of UK respondents identify a global internet outage as the country’s most concerning Black Swan scenario, substantially above the global average.
Allianz Commercial attributes this to the UK’s strong reliance on digital infrastructure and services. Global supply chain paralysis follows at 46%, while the sudden collapse of a major financial institution ranks third, signalling persistent concern over financial system stability.
Thomas Lillelund, Chief Executive Officer of Allianz Commercial, commented: “Although Black Swan events are not seen to be immediately likely, these rare, high-impact scenarios are perceived as increasingly plausible and should be considered by executive boards given their potential consequences.
“Growing interconnectivity across both physical and digital supply chains means disruptions now cascade much faster and can turn into major losses. In today’s fragmented geopolitical environment, companies must double down on resilience and integrated risk management to ride out the next perfect storm.”
Allianz Commercial identifies geopolitics as a central driver behind current risk perceptions. The company notes that threats linked to trade disputes, export controls and protectionist policies, alongside conflicts in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine, are heightening concerns about systemic supply chain shocks. Allianz Research estimates that a global supply chain disruption on a scale comparable to the war in Ukraine could generate cumulative GDP losses of US$1.5 trillion over a two-year period.
Political instability is also viewed by respondents as a potential catalyst for severe disruption. Allianz Commercial reports that mass social unrest and political instability rank fourth globally at 29%, and appear among the top three risks in the Americas and in Africa and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the sudden collapse of a major financial institution or a sovereign debt crisis ranks third globally at 30%. Allianz Commercial notes that such an event could trigger a liquidity crisis and significant market volatility.
The company further states that concentration risk is increasing exposure to systemic shocks. According to Allianz Commercial, reliance on a limited number of suppliers in areas such as artificial intelligence, digital services, semiconductors, rare earth processing and transition technologies may amplify the impact of future disruptions. The interdependence of energy grids and digital infrastructure is also cited as a factor that could intensify the consequences of simultaneous climate and power-related crises.
Survey findings published by Allianz Commercial show that perceptions vary by company size. Large enterprises with annual revenues above US$500 million and mid-sized firms between US$100 million and US$500 million most frequently cite global supply chain paralysis as their primary concern.
Smaller companies, with revenues below US$100 million, are more likely to rank a global internet outage as their leading risk. Allianz Commercial suggests that larger organisations may feel comparatively better prepared for cyber-related events due to greater resources and diversified operations, while smaller firms may be more exposed to prolonged digital disruption.
Michael Bruch, Global Head of Risk Consulting Advisory Services at Allianz Commercial, added: “Awareness of Black Swans and the need to build resilience has increased in recent years, but businesses can never fully prepare for rare high impact events such as a global outage or an unforeseen climate-related catastrophe.
“Building organisational agility, fostering a risk-aware culture and developing scalable response plans for a range of scenarios remain the most practical steps to best prepare for Black Swan events. Insurers can play a critical role in helping businesses strengthen their resilience in areas such as cyber risk and support more informed decisions when assessing and selecting critical suppliers.”
Allianz Commercial concludes that while respondents do not view these scenarios as imminent, they are widely regarded as plausible within a five-year timeframe. The company states that in an environment shaped by geopolitical fragmentation, digital dependency and climate pressures, resilience, agility and integrated risk management are increasingly seen by businesses as essential measures to mitigate the impact of severe, low-probability events.
