CatIQ, a Toronto-domiciled organisation providing industry-wide catastrophe insurance data and a subsidiary of PERILS, has disclosed an elevated third industry loss estimate of CAD 491 million for the severe thunderstorm event that struck parts of southern Ontario and southern Quebec between 30 June and 3 July 2026.
The firm clarified that this third estimate provides a closer look into the market 90 days post-event.
It also marks an increase from the 45-day estimate of CAD 439 million, driven mostly by growth occurring in the residential line of business.
CatIQ explained that the loss estimate covers property, both commercial and residential, and vehicle (motor) claims, including additional loss adjustment expenses.
Caroline Floyd, Director, CatIQ, commented, “The city of Ottawa saw its wettest summer on record in 2026, and this event was a primary contributor. Of the nearly 550 mm of rain that fell on the city between June and August, nearly 120 mm fell on 1 July.
“The impact of this intense pluvial flooding is clearly reflected in the high-resolution loss data, which shows more than 45% of the incurred loss in personal lines stemmed from just two FSAs in the Nepean area. All told, more than 70% of the incurred total and more than 60% of claims for personal property arose from Nepean and communities on the southwest side of Ottawa.”
The next update for the Ontario and Quebec storm estimate will be released on 5 January 2027, following the PERILS reporting schedule.
Additionally, CatIQ also disclosed a decreased second estimate of CAD 293 million for the Bald Range Fire that impacted Summerland, British Columbia, and the surrounding area in August 2026.
The second estimate follows the firm’s reporting schedule and has been released 45 days post-event, as the decreased estimate falls below the PERILS reporting threshold. The initial estimate for the same event was CAD 313 million.
