Momentum for insurers across EMEA emerging markets is set to continue, even as geopolitics and trade tensions remain the primary risks for these credit conditions, according to Tatiana Grineva, Director Insurance Ratings, S&P.
Grineva, during S&P’s ‘EMEA Emerging Markets Credit Outlook For Insurers 2026’ event, highlighted the sector’s remarkable staying power.
The EMEA emerging market landscape – Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), South Africa and Türkiye – varies a lot, including its size, insurance market penetration, and maturity.
These regions are characterised by ongoing structural shifts alongside their potential for growth. In contrast, Western Europe is a mature market facing stiff competition and narrow margins.
Meanwhile, frontier economies such as the Middle East, North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Asia, present a different dynamic: they are volatile but offer both elevated earnings potential and low market penetration.
For 2026, S&P expects geopolitical instability and trade tariff shocks to remain the main “downside risks” for credit conditions and insurance for all emerging markets in the EMEA area in 2026.
Grineva warned that these factors could trigger prolonged volatility in financial markets, potentially weakening sovereign credit and impacting insurance investment portfolios.
However, the credit impact of this risk has thus far been limited for insurance, according to Grineva.
“We forecast that insurance credit worthiness in EMEA emerging market will remain resilient in 2026, and thanks to solid standalone characteristics of individual rated insurance, and sufficient capital buffers,” Grineva stated.
The majority of S&P’s outlooks for the region remain Stable, with several entities trending towards Positive, a shift primarily driven by improvements in sovereign credit ratings.
S&P believes that most emerging markets in the EMEA are currently well positioned, with real GDP growth expected to remain broadly in line with last year’s.
The credit rating agency also expects economic growth prospects and earnings potential for these markets to remain solid.
“In conclusion, our outlook for insurers in emerging EMEA is consciously optimistic. It is underpinned by solid growth and earnings potential tempered by elevated geopolitical risk and trade tariffs,” Grineva highlighted.
