Allianz Trade, a provider of trade credit insurance and part of the Allianz Group, has released new findings from its 2025 Global Survey that show just how sharply the ongoing US trade war is hitting international exporters.
The survey, which gathered insights from 4,500 companies in nine major economies before and after the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, provides a rare snapshot of how businesses are coping with a surge in trade policy unpredictability.
Covering exporters from China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UK, and the US—countries that together make up nearly 60% of the world’s GDP—the survey shows mounting concerns over shrinking export revenues, longer payment cycles, and escalating non-payment risks.
The abrupt shift in business sentiment since the April 2 tariff announcement is stark. Nearly 60% of firms now expect negative consequences from the trade war, and 45% believe their export turnover will fall.
What’s more, 26% of companies are even considering halting production temporarily due to a combination of tariffs and currency instability, especially in sectors that rely heavily on imported components.
Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, said: “In sharp contrast to the optimism seen before the April 2 tariff wave, this year’s Global Survey confirms what we are observing across markets: uncertainty and fragmentation are becoming structural. The US ‘Liberation Day’ exposed the vulnerabilities of companies with highly concentrated supply chains and export markets.
“The numbers speak for themselves: global positive export expectations dropped from 80% to 40% and 42% of companies now expect export turnover to fall between -2% and -10%, compared to just 5% before the April 2 announcement.
“Despite recent bilateral agreements with the UK and China, we estimate global export losses will reach USD 305bn in 2025. Companies are not standing still. Having navigated successive shocks since 2020, they are once again adapting, diversifying partners, reconfiguring logistics, and embedding risk-sharing across the value chain. In today’s trade environment, success depends increasingly on adaptability.”
Among the most affected are exporters in China and Singapore. A vast majority—82% in China and 55% in Singapore—expect their international sales to suffer this year.
Over 60% of Chinese respondents now project export revenues to drop by as much as 10%, and 47% of Singaporean firms say the same. Although a recent US-China trade agreement offered some hope, policy unpredictability and high tariffs are still major obstacles. In response, nearly all surveyed companies from both countries are already identifying or shifting to new export destinations.
The data also suggest that exporters are not waiting passively. With the current 90-day pause on new tariffs (until August 12 for China and July 8 for others), many firms are accelerating shipments—a move 86% of US companies made earlier in the year to beat the clock.
Yet very few are choosing to absorb higher costs or reduce prices. Instead, more than half of US exporters plan to raise prices, and a growing number are sourcing from new markets, especially in Poland and Spain, to reduce exposure.
Diversification remains a key buffer, with 54% of firms citing political instability and social unrest among their top three concerns. About one-third have already tapped into new markets, and almost two-thirds are in the process of doing so.
Cost control is another priority. Many exporters are rerouting shipments to avoid expensive customs channels, helped by a nearly 50% drop in shipping costs and falling oil prices, now expected to hover between $65 and $70 per barrel. More companies are also offloading logistics responsibilities to their suppliers—except in the US, where Cost, Insurance & Freight (CIF) continues to be the dominant model.
Additionally, 59% of firms are introducing pricing clauses in their contracts to share foreign exchange risk with suppliers and clients.
The report also captures a larger realignment in global trade flows. The disconnect between the US and China appears to be deepening.
After the April tariffs, only 10% of US companies plan to export to China—down by half—while Chinese exporters slashed their expectations to sell to North America from 15% to just 3%. US firms with production bases in China are increasingly looking to relocate, with Western Europe and Latin America each attracting a quarter of those seeking alternatives.
At the same time, European companies are renewing their focus on Asia. Interest in exporting to China and other parts of Asia rose to 36%, and interest in South and Southeast Asian markets doubled to 14%. Latin America is emerging as a strategic beneficiary, becoming an attractive gateway for both Chinese and European companies aiming to serve the US market at lower cost.
Françoise Huang, Senior Economist for Asia Pacific and Trade, added: “Even though the new trade deal brings the US average import tariff rate on China to 39%, down from an eye-watering 103%, this remains much higher than the 13% rate applied before the second Trump administration.
“Against this backdrop, friendshoring is likely to continue gaining traction: Europe and Latin America are emerging as attractive alternatives for Chinese firms, and European firms are also increasingly interested in exporting to China and Asia: between both surveys, export intentions increased to 36%, and the interest towards the South and Southeast Asian market doubled to 14%.
“Meanwhile, Latin America is emerging as the winner of rerouting and trade circumvention strategies, with both Chinese and European firms looking to the region for access to the US at a lower cost.”
There’s also a noticeable shift in payment expectations. Since the April announcements, 25% of firms now expect payment terms to stretch by more than seven days, and 48% are bracing for a rise in missed payments. This is especially concerning in countries like the US, UK, and Italy, where businesses are already seeing signs of tighter liquidity.
Only 11% of firms continue to receive payment within 30 days—a figure even lower for major exporters like the US, China, and Germany. For most companies, the new norm is receiving payments within 30 to 70 days, with the proportion even higher in the UK, France, and Italy.
“Larger firms tend to experience longer payment delays, with 26% of surveyed companies having a turnover above EUR5bn facing payment terms exceeding 70 days, compared to 18% for the overall sample average. This suggests that major companies are increasingly taking on the role of an invisible bank for smaller companies. As exporters face longer payment cycles and rising insolvency risks, they are under pressure to pass on costs, source from new markets, or even reconsider their entire international footprint,” concluded Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.
