Jess Middleton, Senior Europe Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, has suggested that this weekend’s unrest in France is shaping up to be one of the country’s “most significant ever” strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) events.
Verisk Maplecroft’s analyst noted that the scale of the damage suggests the riots could ultimately prove more costly than the unrest that followed the death of Nahel Merzouk in 2023.
Estimates suggest that more than 3,000 shops were damaged or looted over the weekend, compared with around 2,500 properties damaged during the 2023 riots, which generated roughly €1 billion in insured losses.
“While it will take time for claims to be fully assessed, this weekend’s unrest is shaping up as one of France’s most significant ever SRCC events,” Middleton said.
These findings echo those of Morningstar DBRS, which recently estimated that France’s riots could cost insurers up to €1.2 billion.
The agency added that the unrest underscores the need to treat SRCC as an accumulation risk, requiring dedicated pricing, limits and reinsurance strategies.
“Authorities are scrambling not only to restore order through targeted curfews in major cities, but also to reassure markets, outside observers and the wider general public that the government remains in control of the situation in the country,” Middleton explained.
He continued, “The political fallout has already been severe, with Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez offering his resignation and the government facing scrutiny over how security forces were caught on the back foot.
“Further violence is not inevitable, but protests linked to the underlying grievances, including cost-of-living pressures and discontent over public services and education, are likely to persist, putting continued pressure on the government to demonstrate that it can maintain order.”
Beyond the immediate security challenge, the analyst identified passage of the 2027 budget as the government’s next major hurdle.
According to Middleton, budget disputes contributed to the downfall of two previous prime ministers, and securing parliamentary backing for cost-saving measures amid heightened social discontent could prove contentious.
“That said, the government may get some assistance this time around, as opposition parties in the fractured National Assembly will likely want to look like responsible players ahead of next year’s presidential and legislative elections,” He noted.
While conditions remain particularly volatile in France, Middleton also flagged that many of the underlying pressures are evident elsewhere in Europe.
Protests in Italy, Belgium and Portugal over the weekend highlight how economic and fiscal pressures are fuelling social mobilisation across the continent more broadly, He said. Further disruption is expected in November, with significant strike action planned in both Portugal and Spain.
The analysts concluded, “Europe is becoming a pressure cooker for social unrest, with squeezed households, rising political polarisation and growing discontent with governments proving increasingly fertile ground for disruptive and damaging demonstrations.
“A repeat of the kind of violence seen in France is far from inevitable, but with governments facing difficult fiscal choices and a dense election calendar through to the end of 2027, the potential for disruptive and damaging unrest will remain elevated in Europe over the near term.
“Europe already ranks as the highest-risk region in our predictive Civil Unrest Index by a significant margin, with Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the UK and Belgium all among the 10 highest-risk countries globally. The remainder of the top 10 is made up of the US, India, Mexico and Brazil, highlighting how civil unrest risks are increasingly concentrated in large, politically and economically significant markets.”
