Global insured losses from natural disasters reached USD $92 billion between January and September 2026, representing the lowest total for the first nine months of a year since 2019.
According to Gallagher Re, the reinsurance broking and advisory firm, its latest Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report shows that insured losses were 29% lower than the 10-year average of USD $128 billion.
Gallagher Re’s Q3 2026 report also found that six consecutive quarters had passed without a single natural catastrophe producing more than USD $10 billion in insured losses. The firm described this as one of the longest periods without such an event in several decades.
Although the frequency of significant loss events remained broadly consistent with historical trends, the severity of individual events helped keep total insured losses below average. Gallagher Re recorded 54 natural catastrophe events worldwide that each caused economic losses of at least USD $1 billion, alongside 24 events that generated insured losses of at least USD $1 billion.
Severe convective storms remained a major source of claims for insurers during the reporting period. Gallagher Re estimated that insured losses from these storms in the United States reached at least USD $43 billion by the end of the third quarter. This marked the fourth consecutive year in which annual insured losses from severe convective storms in the country had surpassed USD $40 billion.
In Europe, insured losses associated with severe convective storms reached at least USD $9 billion, according to Gallagher Re. This included USD $3.8 billion in losses resulting from an outbreak in late August. At a global level, severe convective storms were responsible for almost 60% of all insured natural catastrophe losses recorded during the first three quarters of 2026.
Hurricane activity also contributed to regional losses during the period. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricanes Lala, Lowell and Nolo all affected the Hawaiian Islands during the third quarter. Gallagher Re highlighted Hurricane Lala, which passed close to the Big Island in mid-August and became Hawaii’s second weather-related disaster of the year to generate economic losses exceeding USD $1 billion.
In the Atlantic, Hurricane Isaias became the first major hurricane of the 2026 season before reaching Florida’s Panhandle on 9 October as a Category 2 storm. As the hurricane occurred outside the nine-month reporting period, its losses were excluded from Gallagher Re’s USD $92 billion global total. The firm expects the storm to generate insured losses in the low to mid-single-digit billions of US dollars.
Isaias also established a record for the latest first hurricane formation in an Atlantic calendar year, according to historical records dating back to 1851.
Despite the relatively low aggregate insured losses recorded so far in 2026, Gallagher Re warned against interpreting the figures as a sign that catastrophe risks have declined. The firm pointed to continued losses from secondary perils and the possibility of a particularly strong El Niño event developing.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a greater than 81% probability that El Niño will remain at “very strong” status into January 2027, as reported by Gallagher Re. Current projections indicate that the event could reach its peak in the final quarter of 2026 before gradually weakening during 2027. A subsequent shift towards La Niña conditions is also possible.
Gallagher Re noted that changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle can influence weather patterns and alter the distribution of risks across different regions. For insurers and reinsurers, these developments may affect where losses are concentrated, the accumulation of exposures and decisions on how capital is allocated.
The firm also highlighted historical evidence linking ENSO transition periods with changes in catastrophe activity. It said monitoring these developments would be important as insurers and reinsurers prepare for the 2027 renewal season, particularly given the potential for regional risk conditions to change.
Temperature records and drought conditions were additional areas of concern identified in Gallagher Re’s report. Global temperatures for the first nine months of 2026 were the second highest recorded for that period in the modern historical record, which extends back to at least 1850.
France, the UK and the contiguous United States also experienced their warmest summers on record for the June-to-August period, according to Gallagher Re. The associated consequences included increased wildfire activity, damage to agricultural production, disruption to transport networks and a rise in insurance claims linked to drought, particularly in France.
Steve Bowen, Chief Science Officer at Gallagher Re, said: “At first glance, 2026 appears to have been a relatively favourable year for the insurance industry. Global insured losses have remained below recent averages, largely because the industry has avoided a meaningful concentration of major loss events. We have now gone six consecutive quarters without a natural catastrophe generating more than USD $10 billion in insured losses, an unusually long stretch by historical standards.
“However, catastrophe activity and catastrophe losses are not necessarily the same thing. The world has still experienced a sizeable number of significant disasters in 2026, but relatively few have occurred in locations or under circumstances that generated outsized insured losses. Many of the costliest events instead produced substantial economic, humanitarian, and societal impacts, with much of the recovery ultimately falling on governments, businesses, and affected communities.
“Looking ahead, the potential transition toward La Niña conditions in 2027 is a reminder of how quickly the catastrophe landscape can shift from one year to the next. Periods like this provide an opportunity to reassess exposures, accumulations, and portfolio resilience. History tells us that more active and costlier periods can return, and organisations that use quieter years to prepare are often best positioned when conditions do eventually shift.”
