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Guy Carpenter forecasts above normal tropical cyclone activity

7th June 2021 - Author: Katie Baker

Guy Carpenter, the reinsurance broking arm of Marsh McLennan, has published its annual briefing on the 2021 Western North Pacific Basic Tropical Cyclone season.

guy-carpenter-logoAccording to the briefing, the number of tropical cyclones forecast to form between April 1 and September 30 is above normal.

Near- to above-normal activity is consistent with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions which follows a weak to moderate La Niña year.

However, on a region-by-region basis, the number of forecast tropical cyclone landfalls across East Asia varies significantly, with below-normal figures forecast for Japan and Korea, above normal for East China, South China, Taiwan and Vietnam, and near normal for the Philippines.

Guy Carpenter also found that the number of tropical cyclone formations predicted for the six-month period from April 1 to September 30 is approximately 19.5, an increase of approximately 44% compared to the 1980-2020 six-month average of 13.5.

RMS

Of the predicted formations, fewer than 9.9 are expected to make landfall, which is marginally below the 1980-2020 average of approximately 10.8.

Commenting on the findings, Jeremy Waite, Asia Pacific Catastrophe Advisory Group Lead, Guy Carpenter, said: “The predictions suggest that the region will experience a very active tropical cyclone season.

“However, the number of storms forecast to make landfall is expected to be slightly below the long-term average, although the exact location of these landfalls remains uncertain.

“By generating these forecasts, we are providing our clients with critical information that will enable them to plan for potentially significant insured and economic losses.”

Karl Jones, Head of Global Strategic Advisory Team in Asia Pacific, Guy Carpenter, added: “Tropical cyclone risk is a key area of focus for our clients, and we have seen significant impact from such events across Asia in recent years.

“Guy Carpenter is committed to enhancing our tools and insight across the region, particularly in quantifying the impacts and uncertainty from climate change.”

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