AIR Worldwide, the catastrophe risk modelling arm of Verisk Analytics, estimates that insured losses inflicted by Hurricane Florence’s winds and storm surge will range from $1.7 billion and $4.6 billion; though these figures do not include a range of factors including the ongoing flooding that is expected.
NASA’s IMERGE estimated Florence’s rainfall from Sept. 10 to 17, 2018
“Hurricane Florence, once a Category 4 storm, made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, at about 7:15AM. on Friday, as a Category 1 storm with 90mph winds,” stated Dr. Peter Sousounis, Vice President and Director of meteorology, AIR Worldwide.
“As Florence approached the East Coast, it grew in size and exhibited multiple wind maxima, which are found in storms with abnormally low central pressure for a given maximum wind speed.”
“As a consequence, strong winds extended well north of the landfall location up to the Outer Banks and into Pamlico Sound, which caused a high storm surge in this area,” added Sousounis.
As Florence advanced on Friday at extremely slow speeds of between three to six mph, the National Weather Service measured 35.93 inches of rainfall in Elizabethtown, North Carolina, breaking the record set by Hurricane Floyd in 1999; more than 30 inches of rain fell on Swansboro, North Carolina.
Furthermore, AIR has reported that several bodies of water have risen above record levels and some of the gauges used to record river levels have been submerged, with at least two being reported as having stopped working.
A USGS gauge in Emerald Isle, North Carolina, recorded six foot one feet above-normal water levels, while a 10-foot surge was reported in New Bern, North Carolina.
Reported wind damage in the region is consistent with that of a category one hurricane, says AIR, and includes downed trees causing damage to homes and automobiles; downed utility poles; and shingle loss with isolated cases of more extensive roof damage.
Widespread riverine and flash flooding continues across many parts of North and South Carolina, with some dams and levees reportedly showing signs of distress; a dam in Hoke County, North Carolina, west of Fayetteville, has failed and the Lake Corriher levee experienced a partial breach.
When taking AIR’s modelled insured loss estimate into consideration, it’s important to note that it does not include factors such as precipitation-induced flooding; losses paid out by the National Flood Insurance Program; losses resulting from the compromise of existing defences; losses to uninsured properties, infrastructure, inland marine, marine cargo or hull, and pleasure boats.
Furthermore, losses from extra-contractual obligations, hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism or civil commotion, other non-modelled losses and losses for U.S offshore assets and non-U.S property are also not included in the company’s estimates.
