ICMR predicts Lloyd’s CoR below 90% for 2025

Based on reported results to date from 17 of the 27 RISX index constituents, Insurance Capital Markets Research (ICMR) has projected that the Lloyd’s market will post a combined ratio of below 90% in its forthcoming 2025 results.

In a new report, ICMR described the anticipated underwriting outcome as “exceptional”, adding that it is likely to be accompanied by a return on capital above 20% for a third consecutive year.

Together, these metrics point to a period of sustained, high-quality profitability for the world’s leading specialist insurance and reinsurance market.

“While broader equity markets have seen a muted start to the year, the specialty sector is surging,” ICMR’s report added.

The RISX index is said to be up 6.9% YTD (as at 20 Feb 2026), significantly distancing itself from both general and sector-specific insurance benchmarks.

ICMR noted that a key driver of this recent momentum was the announcement of a potential acquisition of Beazley by Zurich.

“This move did more than just boost Beazley’s share price; it acted as a catalyst for the broader sector, lifting peers like Hiscox and reaffirming the scarcity value of high-performing specialty platforms,” ICMR’s report explained.

Zurich was recently granted an extension to the ‘Put up or Shut up’ deadline in relation to its potential acquisition of Beazley.

The deadline has been pushed back to 4 March 2026, giving Zurich until 5pm (London time) on that date to either confirm a firm intention to make an offer or announce that it does not intend to proceed with a bid for the specialist insurer.

ICMR’s report concluded, “Historically, accessing the unique returns of the Lloyd’s market has been a challenge for many investors. Supporting syndicates with capital directly—the traditional route—remains a complex and often illiquid process.

“The RISX index demonstrates a compelling alternative: an equity strategy based on the listed owners of Lloyd’s businesses.

“By providing a proxy for the marketplace as if it were a single listed company, the RISX index offers investors a liquid, transparent way to capture Lloyd’s-like returns through the public markets, bypassing the structural hurdles of direct capital support.”