With warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expected close to the coast, there’s a chance storms could develop and make landfall very quickly, warns Jeff Waters, a meteorologist at Moody’s RMS.
Waters has been the Product Owner for the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane models since 2018, having been with the catastrophe risk modeller for more than a decade in roles focused on hurricane models.
With the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season now underway, our insurance-linked securities (ILS) focused sister publication, Artemis, spoke with Waters about the forecast for the months ahead.
This year’s forecasts have focused on the state of the ENSO, but another important factor is the sea surface temperature side of the equation, which Waters was keen to highlight.
“The state of the basin is hinting at much warmer than average SSTs, particularly in the subtropical, in the eastern part of the basin, and even in parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Not only that, but we’re also projecting to see warmer sea surface temperatures that are very close to the coast as well.
“So, when that happens, you could see instances where a tropical cyclone or hurricane could develop, strengthen, and threaten to make landfall very quickly with very short notice,” said Waters.
He went on to explain that, unfortunately, this is the kind of thing that has happened more frequently in recent years.
“It directly affects the ability for either individuals, policyholders or all the way up to organisations in different parts of the market to prepare and essentially be ready for a storm of that nature.
“So, looking at where the storms form, how quickly they can intensify leading up to landfall, that’s certainly one thing that we keep an eye on. But in addition, if and when a storm makes landfall, there could certainly be varying levels of effects, depending on where that storm makes landfall.”
Watch the full video for more insights into the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from Moody’s RMS’ Jeff Waters.
The full video interview is embedded below and can also be viewed in full, along with previous Artemis Live video interviews, over on the Artemis YouTube channel.
You can also listen to audio versions of Artemis’ interviews by subscribing to the Artemis Live podcast here.
