Munich Re, a global reinsurer and provider of primary insurance and risk solutions, has disclosed that in the first half of 2026, insured losses from natural disasters totalled USD 44 billion, representing a 60% insurance gap, as overall global losses totalled nearly USD 112 billion.
The reinsurer, in its new report, Lower losses, growing risks: the natural disaster review for the first half of 2026, explained that losses were slightly below the inflation-adjusted average figures for the first half of the year over the past ten years (overall losses: USD113 billion; insured losses: USD 50 billion), but significantly below the 5-year average figures (overall losses: USD 136 billion; insured losses: USD 66 billion).
Thomas Blunck, Member of the Board of Management, Munich Re, commented, “The first half of the year has provided a welcome breather from previous years of high natural disaster losses. But climate change and growing exposure persist, increasing the risk of larger losses in the future. The best way for society to reduce losses is to stop building in high-risk areas and to keep investing in prevention.”
According to Munich Re, the most destructive natural disaster was a double earthquake in Venezuela on 24 June, which, according to preliminary estimates, is expected to cause total losses of USD 30 billion, although insured losses of less than a billion, regionally.
For insurers, severe thunderstorms in the US were the biggest driver of losses in H1’26, with total losses of around USD 30 billion and insured losses of USD 22 billion. However, the damage caused by the thunderstorms in the US was below the average figures for the past ten years (total losses: USD 34 billin; insured losses: USD 26 billion). Further, the tornado and hail events were well within expected ranges would have actually indicated higher losses.
Region-wise, in H1’26, in North America, natural disasters caused total losses of around USD 47 billion by June, USD 34 billion of which were insured. The costliest natural disaster in North America in H1’26 was a large severe thunderstorm outbreak; the April event swept across several states in the Midwestern US, reaching as far south as Texas.
The report warned, “As of the end of June, this year’s hurricane season in the North Atlantic had – apart from one weak tropical cyclone (Arthur) – been quiet, as is typical during El Niño phases. However, powerful hurricanes can occur even under El Niño conditions. Additionally, in the southern United States, El Niño typically increases the likelihood of above-average rainfall, raising the risk of flash floods and river flooding.”
Across Europe, apart from heatwaves, severe winter storms caused extensive damage. Overall, the nine winter storms accounted for around 80% of total losses and 70% of insured losses in Europe from all natural disasters in H1’26, amounting to losses of around USD 22 billion and insured losses of just over USD 7 billion.
In just over a month, nine storms affected Portugal and Spain at the start of 2026. This included Kristin, the most devastating, in late January, causing extensive losses amounting to around USD 7.7 billion, of which around USD 1.8 billion were insured.
In the Asia-Pacific region, losses remained significantly lower than in previous years, at around USD 8.7 billion (compared to the 10-year average, adjusted for inflation: USD 32 billion), of which just over USD 1 billion (USD 5 billion) was insured.
Throughout May, persistent rainfall in central and southern China led to severe flooding. Initial estimates put the nationwide losses from these floods at approximately USD 2.8 billion, only a fraction of which were insured.
Severe bushfires broke out in southeast Australia, producing total losses of almost USD 1 billion, two-thirds of which were insured. In India, the monsoon rains that are vital for much of the country’s agriculture arrived later than usual and remained significantly weaker than normal. At the same time, strengthening El Niño conditions heightened the risk of drought-related impacts.
In Africa, natural disaster losses totalled around USD 2 billion, of which, only a fraction were insured. The largest damage was caused by storms and flooding in South Africa in May, with overall losses amounting to over USD 0.5 billion.
Munich Re explained that the low loss numbers once again highlighted the continent’s protection gap: while exposure is rising, insurance coverage remains limited, leaving governments, businesses and households to absorb most of the financial impact on their own, also slowing recovery efforts.
The report warned, “The second half of the year holds significant risks for the region. In Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, El Niño often increases the risk of heatwaves, droughts and wildfires. At the same time, El Niño can enhance rainfall and flood risk in other parts of Asia, particularly where altered monsoon patterns or typhoon activity lead to excessive precipitation.
“Moreover, El Niño tends to shift the areas where typhoons in the Northwest Pacific form toward the east. With more time over warm ocean waters, typhoons can intensify and persist longer, increasing the likelihood of severe storms. Their tracks also tend to shift northward, placing Japan, Korea and Greater China at greater risk.”
All in all, the report warns that all the recorded natural disasters for the first half of the year are exacerbated by climate change. From record-breaking heatwaves in Europe and North America, to the Super El Niño, which is expected to change weather extremes worldwide
Munich Re warns, “El Niño will result in weather extremes in many parts of the world. The second half of 2026 is also expected to be shaped by the climate phenomenon El Niño, which tends to produce even higher temperatures and influences extreme weather events in many regions of the world.
“In many regions – such as Australia, Central America and southwestern Africa – El Niño is increasing the risk of drought and wildfires. In western South America, parts of Brazil, and the southwestern US, on the other hand, it can lead to an increase in heavy rainfall accompanied by flash floods. El Niño dampens the hurricane season in the North Atlantic, but enhances tropical cyclone activity in all parts of the North Pacific, including the Northwest Pacific.”
Tobias Grimm, Munich Re’s Chief Climate Scientist, said, “It’s a dangerous mix: as global warming continues, the world is also heading for a Super El Niño, which will drive temperatures up even further. The effects will likely be clearly felt in the second half of the year. Taking timely precautions saves lives and limits the economic damage caused by disasters.”
