Catastrophe risk modeller Karen Clark & Company (KCC) has announced that its US Hurricane Reference Model Version 3.0 has been certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM).
The certification follows on from the approval of the KCC US Flood Model certification last December.
The FCHLPM was established in 1995 to review the soundness of hurricane model methodology and loss output.
Certification by the FCHLPM is required for insurers to use a hurricane model for residential ratemaking in Florida.
“Version 3.0 of the KCC Hurricane Model incorporates a number of scientific advancements, including its distinction as a three-peril model,” said Karen Clark, KCC CEO.
“This means hurricane winds, coastal flooding from storm surge, and precipitation-driven inland flooding can all be accurately quantified for individual events. The KCC US Flood Model is the only flood model that has been certified by the FCHLPM which means this is the first time an approved model can be used by insurers to capture the full extent of potential impacts from hurricanes.”
Daniel Ward, KCC Senior Atmospheric Scientist, also commented: “The last three years have been characterized by record-breaking frequency and severity of North Atlantic hurricanes.”
“The average annual frequency of landfalling hurricanes along the entire coastline has been nearly double the long term average, and in 2018 Florida experienced another Category 5 hurricane,” Ward explained. “In total, three of the four landfalling Category 5 hurricanes in the historical record have made landfall in Florida, and this most recent data has been incorporated into the KCC Hurricane Model Version 3.0.”
“Since the previous model certification, additional high resolution claims data with which to validate the vulnerability functions have been provided by KCC client companies,” said Filmon Habte, KCC Senior Wind Engineer.
“Detailed analyses on the new data have informed refinements to the model assumptions with respect to regional vulnerability, wind mitigation measures, and secondary characteristics. The combined hazard and vulnerability module enhancements resulted in an increase in Florida insured loss potential of eight percent for residential properties.”
“The FCHLPM certification process involves a rigorous examination of the underlying model assumptions and methodologies,” added Glen Daraskevich, KCC Senior Vice President. “It includes a comprehensive audit by a professional team comprised of experts in meteorology, statistics, engineering, actuarial science, and computer science. While a challenging endeavor, KCC scientists are dedicated to keeping the KCC models current with respect to scientific and engineering principles, the evolving climate, and data from the most recent events.”