Hurricane Ian has now reached major Category 3 status with 125 mph sustained winds, and with a shift further east in the NHC’s forecast cone overnight, the storm is set to pass very close to the Tampa Bay area, or even come ashore with a landfall.
The NHC warned previously of the higher than usual uncertainty in both the track and intensity of hurricane Ian as it moved through the Caribbean.
With the forecast cone now showing hurricane Ian set to pull up alongside the Tampa Bay region, with potential to make a landfall, there’s a far greater chance of significant storm surge, which will be concerning for insurers and reinsurers.
Currently, the models forecast a significant Category 2 or even a major Category 3 hurricane Ian extremely close to the Tampa Bay area, with wind gusts of as much as 120 mph, alongside excess rainfall, and potentially catastrophic storm surge in a densely populated, low-lying part of the coast, with high values.
The Tampa Bay area is home to a substantial amount of low-lying properties on its coast. At the same time, inlets and the shape of the coastline make it particularly exposed to storm surges. Further, Tampa Bay and the surrounding area, notably the south, is a fairly high-value part of the coastline, so there’s likely some significant property values at-risk from hurricane Ian’s winds and surge.
In fact, the NHC is expecting storm surge as high as five to 10 feet for parts of the Florida Peninsula, including the Tampa Bay area, which will result in seawater inundation to property and infrastructure for the coast and connected waterways.
See below for the latest forecast cone provided by the NHC:
The next is from research scientist Tomer Burg, including data on each forecast point. It projects 120 mph winds right on top of the Tampa Bay area, which could be a very large loss.
According to global property data and analytics-driven solutions provider, CoreLogic, hurricane Ian has the potential to threaten some 1,044,412 homes along the Florida coastline with storm surge impacts. Combined, these single-family and multi-family homes have a reconstruction cost value of roughly $258.3 billion.
“Due to Hurricane Ian’s slower speed and rapid intensification in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the threat of a widening wind field bringing damaging storm surge increases each day,” said the firm.
As of 07:30am UK time (02:30am EDT), the NHC said that hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall over western Cuba soon, with sustained winds having increased to 125 mph.
Of course, as the storm tracks over western Cuba, insurers and reinsurers will have to wait and see how it forms back over the Gulf of Mexico. It could strengthen and grow in size, or neither, as it head towards the Florida coastline.
But currently, the model consensus, the spread of which has lessened overnight, points to a shift to the east when compared with yesterday, leaving the Tampa Bay area in hurricane Ian’s path. As a result of the current forecasts, it’s understood that potential insurance and reinsurance industry loss figures have been on the rise.
However, these are very widespread in terms of modelled outcomes, from the low single digit billions of dollars to as much as $40 billion.
In its analysis of hurricane Ian, reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter notes that if it does make landfall along the west-central Florida Peninsula, there are four previous events with a similar track and intensity. This includes the 1896 Cat 3 storm, the 1921 Cat 3 storm, the 1944 Cat 2 storm, and Cat 2 hurricane Gladys in 1958.
“The simulated losses across these four events ranges from minimal loss in Gladys, to a range of USD 15 billion to USD 35 billion across the other three hurricanes,” says Guy Carpenter. “If Ian verifies to the western side of model guidance, a panhandle landfall at a lower intensity would be more likely, with a range of historic analogs suggesting reasonable worse case loss scenarios in the low single digit billions.”
