Despite strong 2025 results from Europe’s four largest primary insurers, Allianz, AXA, Generali and Zurich, Moody’s Ratings has warned that their momentum may slow as key growth drivers fade and geopolitical and economic risks begin to weigh on earnings.
The peer group reported combined net profits of €32 billion for 2025, representing an average 14% year-on-year increase, underscoring, in Moody’s view, the group’s very strong earnings capacity.
The peer group also reported a 9% average increase in their operating results in 2025, supported by strong contributions across all major business lines, with P&C being the primary earnings growth driver.
“All insurers continue to demonstrate strong diversification by business line, with Allianz, AXA and Zurich generating most of their profits from P&C, while Generali’s earnings profile remains more evenly balanced between P&C and L&H,” Moody’s explained.
The rating agency continued, “Contributions from segments that are not or less correlated with insurance have remained roughly stable compared to the prior year, with asset management operations of Allianz contributing 19% of operating results, wealth and asset management operations of Generali contributing 15%, and Zurich’s Farmers segment contributing 25% in 2025.
“AXA’s asset management contribution was more limited at 2%, reflecting the fact that the contribution is only for the first half of the year, before the closing of the sale of AXA IM to BNP Paribas on 1 July 2025.”
According to Moody’s, the peer group also continues to benefit from geographical diversification, which remains a key strength.
The rating agency went on, “Allianz and AXA expanded their businesses in their respective domestic markets, while Generali and Zurich were roughly stable.
“All insurers also maintain significant footprints across Europe. Zurich has a comparatively stronger presence in the US than its peers. In addition, commercial lines, reinsurance and trade credit insurance are essentially global businesses, providing further diversification.”
While these insurers still have levers to support further earnings growth in the future, Moody’s has anticipated that momentum will moderate as several key drivers begin to fade.
At the same time, the rating agency cautioned that geopolitical tensions and a more uncertain macroeconomic backdrop could start to weigh on earnings, potentially exposing the group to greater volatility.
Moody’s concluded, “The four insurers highlighted that they continue to expect further margin improvements and increasing insurance revenue, which will result in higher earnings from the segment.
“However, we interpret the outlook as inherently more cautious than it was a year ago, also supported by the group of insurers adding additional reserving prudence, which could help reported claims ratios even if underlying claims development is less favourable, for example, if natural catastrophe claims, which were relatively benign in 2025, return to long-term averages.
“Furthermore, the retail pricing momentum will likely continue to slow down over 2026 as pricing ahead of claims cost trends will become more difficult.
“While some within the group had argued that they could still achieve sound price increases over 2025 because local peers had more pricing catch-up to do, competition could intensify now that the markets have returned to underwriting profitability, as already seen in the UK last year.
“In commercial lines, the pricing momentum is inconsistent across lines of business and target segments; however, a strong improvement appears unlikely overall.
“Lastly, the Iran conflict will likely result in some claims in specialty lines, to which all within the group, excluding Generali, have moderate exposure. Depending on how long the conflict and the distortion in energy prices will go on, this could result in lower economic growth and higher inflation.”
