Catastrophe risk modeller Moody’s RMS Event Response has estimated total US private market insured losses from Hurricane Isaias to range from $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion, with a best estimate of $3.5 billion.
Hurricane Isaias marks the ninth named storm and the first hurricane of the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season.
On 10 October 2026, Isaias made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane near Destin, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 105 miles per hour (165 kilometres per hour) and a central pressure of 971 hPa.
Hurricane-force winds caused damage near the landfall site on the Florida Panhandle coast and in inland areas extending to the Florida-Alabama border. Coastal areas of the far western Florida Panhandle were affected by a strong storm surge, while rainfall totals of up to 7 inches (180 millimetres) were recorded across the Florida Panhandle and southern and central Alabama.
The system produced tropical storm-force winds across coastal areas of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, large parts of southern and central Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southwestern and central-western Georgia, causing widespread damage from falling trees. It also spawned several tornadoes in the Carolinas.
Moody’s said its recent estimate covers insured losses associated with wind, storm surge and precipitation-induced flooding.
The estimate is predominantly driven by wind damage. Moody’s expects storm surge, precipitation-induced inland flooding and losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to contribute around $250 million.
The loss estimate reflects property damage and business interruption across residential, commercial, industrial, automobile and watercraft lines of business, and accounts for sources of post-event loss amplification (PLA).
The figure includes wind and storm surge losses in parts of the Gulf Coast and southeastern US, based on analysis of Moody’s RMS Event Response ensemble footprints in Version 25 of Moody’s RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. These footprints reconstruct Isaias’s wind and storm surge hazards to account for uncertainties in observed wind speeds and storm surge.
The estimate also includes impacts from precipitation-induced inland flooding in affected regions, using an internal flood footprint reconstruction in Version 1.3 of Moody’s RMS US Inland Flood HD Model.
Other catastrophe modellers have also released insured loss estimates for Hurricane Isaias. Cotality has estimated insured losses from wind and storm surge at between $2 billion and $3 billion.
Karen Clark & Company (KCC) has estimated US privately insured losses from wind and storm surge at $3 billion.
Meanwhile, Verisk’s Catastrophe and Risk Solutions business estimates insured industry losses to onshore property from the hurricane will be between $1 billion and $2 billion.
Gallagher Re has also recently published commentary on Hurricane Isaias, stating that the event is unlikely to influence upcoming 1 January reinsurance renewal discussions.
Jeff Waters, Director – North Atlantic Hurricane Models, Moody’s, commented, “Hurricane Isaias was yet another example of a storm that intensified quickly over the anomalously warm ocean waters in the Gulf, a region that usually sees higher hurricane activity during El Niño years. Thankfully, the storm encountered strong wind shear as it approached landfall, which disrupted its structure and weakened the wind field considerably. As a result, we expect the overall extent and severity of insured losses from this event to be manageable for the market.”
Raj Vojjala, Managing Director – Modeling and Analytics, Moody’s, said, “Many exposures impacted by Hurricane Isaias were also impacted by recent storms like Hurricanes Sally and Zeta in 2020, and Helene in 2024, which led to widespread roof repairs and replacements. We expect these efforts to have improved the risk profile and structural resilience of the region’s building stock to hurricane winds, especially for an event like Isaias. Nevertheless, a high incidence of treefall-driven roof damage in the affected area and potential roof replacements due to Florida’s 25% roof rule, which can require full replacement of certain roofs when repairs exceed a specified threshold, will drive insured losses in this event.”
