Zurich-based catastrophe insurance data provider PERILS has disclosed its fourth and final industry loss estimate for Cyclone Alfred, noting the event has cost the insurance industry a total of AUD 1.877 billion.
This final figure compares to the previous loss estimates of AUD 2.568 billion, AUD 2.250 billion and AUD 1.922 billion issued by PERILS six weeks, three months and six months after the event, respectively.
In line with the PERILS coverage definition for Australia, this loss number covers the property and motor hull lines of business and is based on loss data collected from affected insurers.
Providing context on the event, PERILS noted that Cyclone Alfred impacted the Australian states of Queensland and New South Wales from 28 February to 12 March 2025.
After lingering for several days near the coast, the system made landfall on 7 March as a Category 1 cyclone near the Gold Coast in Southeast Queensland.
PERILS said that Cyclone Alfred is the largest insured cyclone loss on an as-if-today basis since Cyclone Debbie in March 2017.
Darryl Pidcock, Head of Asia Pacific & Cyber at PERILS, commented, “Tropical cyclones typically bring very strong winds and heavy rainfall. In the case of Cyclone Alfred, however, wind gusts were not particularly strong, and thus the wind alone was not the main loss-driver. Rather, it was the mix of prolonged windy weather and heavy precipitation which drove the losses.
“This unusual cyclone character made loss reserving challenging, and insurers chose a cautious approach in the early stages post-event, as evidenced by the material reduction from AUD 2,568m after six weeks to AUD 1,922m after six months of the event.
“Since then, loss development has become much more stable, and losses reduced by a mere 2.3% for our final loss number of AUD 1,877m.”
He continued: “Cyclone Alfred is a good example of our work motivation, namely, to increase data availability for natural catastrophe insurance for the better understanding of natural catastrophe risk.
“As such, we hope that our loss data for this event, including its development over time, will be of benefit to the insurance industry should a future cyclone event with similar characteristics strike.”
