A new report from Andrew Silke, a Professor for Pool Re and Cranfield University, has highlighted the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting terrorism around the world.
There are currently mixed opinions on the pandemic’s short-term impact on the level of attacks in the short-term.
It’s understood that lockdown measures will tend to inhibit attacks but terrorist propaganda calling for action while authorities are distracted will incite some incidents.
The report notes how Islamist extremist propaganda is focusing more on the vulnerability of government opponents distracted by the pandemic and the opportunity this presents for attacks.
Furthermore, there have been significant increases in online extremist activity, raising the risk of increasing short-to-medium term radicalisation.
There are also strong long-term concerns that economically weakened states will be more vulnerable to the emergence/resurgence of terrorist groups in many parts of the world.
“The pandemic is likely to have a mixed impact on terrorism trends in the short term,” said Silke.
“While lockdown measures may represent obstacles to terrorists to carry out real-world attacks, many terrorist groups have also flagged that the pandemic has left government and security resources being severely stretched.
“As a result, the ability of government, intelligence and law enforcement agencies to focus on traditional priorities such as counterterrorism has been undermined.”
Commenting on Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear weapons, Silke notes, “One genuine concern is that COVID-19 may lead to a resurgence in interest among terrorists for using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.
“Historically, a range of terrorist movements have been interested in bioterrorism though there have been very few successful attacks by terrorists using biological weapons. While serious obstacles certainly remain, the huge impact of COVID-19 may re-ignite some interest in biological weapons.”
Pool Re’s Chief Resilience Officer, Ed Butler added, “This report is very timely and worth digesting at a time when we are quite rightly focussed on the near-term issues and human and economic devastation being caused by this global pandemic.
“However, Pool Re’s core purpose remains the provision of terrorism reinsurance and we need to continue to understand the contemporary terrorist threats as well as horizon scan the future landscape.
“Pool Re’s strategic relationship with Cranfield University underpins the importance we attach to collaborating with academia in understanding and mitigating against catastrophic perils.”
