The global re/insurance industry is expected to continue benefiting from a broadly favourable external operating environment in 2026, supported by solid global economic growth of around 2.8%, broadly in line with 2025, and further moderating inflation, despite short-term volatility, according to Swiss Re’s annual report.
The reinsurer noted that in 2025, the global economy demonstrated resilience amid heightened trade tensions and elevated policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
With this in mind, Swiss Re said it and its peers benefited from global economic growth, robust labour markets, elevated long-term government bond yields and strong financial market returns.
Demand for insurance and reinsurance also reportedly remained solid in 2025, although total global insurance premium growth slowed to an estimated 3.9% in real terms, following a decade-high expansion of 5.7% in 2024.
As per Swiss Re, this reflected a transition from post-pandemic strength to a more sustainable growth path.
The firm’s report added that while financial markets should benefit from the continued economic expansion in 2026, elevated asset valuations and ongoing policy and geopolitical uncertainty may drive periodic market volatility and pose a risk to the overall macro outlook.
Swiss Re’s annual report continued, “Equities are expected to deliver positive returns in 2026, while high-quality investment grade credit spreads are expected to remain tight.
“Total global insurance premium growth is projected to slow to around 2.0% in real terms on average over 2026–2027, reflecting a return to more sustainable expansion after the strong growth experienced in the last two years.
“Firm long-dated bond yields will continue to provide a reinvestment tailwind for insurers’ fixed- income portfolios, supporting profitability in the P&C and L&H sectors.”
As for the P&C sector, Swiss Re has anticipated that the market will hit a cyclical low in 2026–2027, with average global P&C insurance premium growth of 1.1% in real terms as competition intensifies.
“Structural drivers such as rising natural catastrophe exposures due to urbanisation and asset concentration in exposed areas, escalating liability costs and AI-related investment (e.g., in data centres, new hardware and energy infrastructure) should support demand in the medium term. Underwriting discipline and robust investment income are expected to continue to underpin overall profitability,” Swiss Re added.
In L&H, sector growth is forecast to remain robust, with life premiums expected to rise at an average annual rate of 2.8% in real terms in 2026–2027.
“Protection business is expected to grow at a similar pace and above the historical average on the back of rising consumer risk awareness. Firm long-term bond yields as well as the partial normalisation of excess mortality trends towards pre-pandemic levels should continue to support profitability over the next two years,” the global reinsurer’s report concluded.
