Territorial disputes, regime changes, and the possible shifting of global alliances are the main themes of political and geopolitical risks insurers need to watch for in 2026 and beyond, according to Yoel Sano, Head of Global Political and Security Risk at BMI, a multinational research firm and Fitch subsidiary.
At the forefront of this year’s instability is the Arctic Circle, with tensions between the United States and several European nations spiked earlier in the year over the sovereignty and strategic status of Greenland, Sano highlighted during Fitch’s ‘Insurance Insights 2026’ event in London last week.
At the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump claimed to have secured a “framework deal” to satisfy his demands, potentially averting a major rift with NATO.
“This may be enough to satisfy Trump’s demands over Greenland at the time being,” said Sano. “On the other hand it could be that Trump feels dissatisfied with the arrangements and raises the question of the future of Greenland again at some point. So, I think we’ll have to wait and see on this one as to whether it’s been resolved.”
Regarding the Arctic Circle, Sano highlighted that the region is becoming a zone of “increased durable competition” between the US, Russia, and China (via its “Polar Silk Road” ) over things like air corridors, critical minerals, and shipping routes.
The start of this year also saw the dramatic overthrow of Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd in Venezuela. The country is currently led by acting President Delcy Rodrigues, who faces internal power struggles between “hardlines” and “moderates”.
“The key thing to watch now is whether the new Venezuelan president, Delcy Rodriguez, retains the cooperative stand towards the Trump Administration in terms of getting Venezuela’s oil industry back into gear,” said Sano.
“It’s also still unclear whether Venezuela will hold fresh elections for a genuinely democratic transition.”
Next year, several key elections are scheduled in Latin American countries, notably in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Recent trends in countries like Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile suggest the region is increasingly electing centre-right, hard-right, or US-aligned leaders.
Consequently, it appears the US is poised to expand its influence in Latin America over the coming year and beyond, according to the executive.
A key election to monitor this year is the US mid-term elections. With over eight months until the midterms, Trump’s currently low approval ratings present a considerable upside and downside risk for both him and the Republican party, Sano explained.
Elsewhere, in Iran, the country’s regime is currently facing its most significant domestic challenge since 2009. While the government appears to have restored order, it came at the cost of thousands of lives.
Additional risks include the 86-year-old Supreme Leader’s succession and potential US/Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.
“Under Trump, the US has backed away from its initial threat to military action, but I would not call this crisis over by any means,” Sano stated.
“The risk remains, and it’s possible that if Trump does strike Iran over the coming months, this could reignite the protests which could in turn cause splits within the regime. There is also the big question about the succession of Iran’s Supreme Leader, and there are a number of scenarios for this issue.”
In the Middle East, despite various ceasefires, the region remains volatile, as the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah conflicts keep evolving.
There is also ongoing instability in Libya, as well as issues with the Syrian Sharia regime, and the conflict in Yemen where Saudi Arabia and the UAE support rival factions.
Sano also spoke about geopolitical risks in the Indo-Pacific region, whose 2026 outlook is quite mixed. The US- China relations are in a period of “brinkmanship” over trade deals and tariffs, and Taiwan remains a critical flashpoint, especially after a major $11 billion U.S. arms package and subsequent Chinese military exercises in December 2025.
Back in Europe, the Ukraine-Russia conflict is still ongoing, and while a potential ceasefire is being discussed at Davos, this might be fragile and prone to violations.
“There’s still this kind of perennial risk of Russia testing European security mechanisms through drone flights, mad aircraft airspace violations, grey operations, and so forth. So, that’ll keep a low level degree of geopolitical tensions elevated for quite some time, even if the conflict in Ukraine ends,” according to Sano.
The executive added: “And there’s still also both worsening and easing potential scenarios for the Ukraine conflict. But even once the war in Ukraine winds down or comes to an official end, the geopolitical situation in Europe is likely to resemble some sort of long-term standoff between NATO and Russia for the foreseeable future.”
Another thing analysts are keeping an eye on is nuclear security. The New START Treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire on February 5, 2026. Without an extension, the formal limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals will disappear, Sano warned.
“In the meantime, China is building up its nuclear arsenal, as is North Korea. The nuclear deadlock with North Korea persists, with no clear endgame in sight.”
At the same time, space competition is likely to heat up over the next few years, with space becoming increasingly militarised.
Notably, NASA is preparing for a crewed mission around the Moon (Artemis II) in early February 2026, while Russia, China, and India are expanding their military space capabilities.
Finally, with geopolitical competition comes a massive technological competition, Sano highlighted.
This great tech competition is unfolding between the US and China regarding AI deployment and the control of critical materials, forcing third-party countries to choose which “technological system” to align with.
