While a “somewhat below average” hurricane season is forecasted for 2026 in the Atlantic Basin, the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) is advising insurers to remain cautious, as it only takes one major storm to shatter loss expectations in a high-inflation environment.
13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes are expected during the 2026 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through November 30, according to a recently released forecast by Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science.
A typical Atlantic season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
“At this point, we are anticipating a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” said Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D., a CSU senior research scientist and non-resident scholar at the Triple-I.
He continued: “Typically, El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear. Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are near average. We consequently do not anticipate tropical Atlantic water temperatures being as strong of a hurricane-enhancing factor as they were the past few years when water temperatures were much warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic.”
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was above-normal, according to CSU, with 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes – which are defined as those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The only US landfall last year was Tropical Storm Chantal, which struck the South Carolina coast on July 6.
For re/insurers, Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 major hurricane, highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure in Jamaica and the surrounding islands to high intensity wind events, as it caused the country nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.
Despite the lower storm count, CSU’s forecast suggests that risk remains significant across key coastal exposures:
- 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
- 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
- 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
- 35% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)
Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan highlighted the importance of insurance despite the “average” forecast, as the severity of a single event is amplified by external factors.
He stated: “While last year was a relatively quiet hurricane season for the continental U.S., all it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season’s start is less than two months away.
“This is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their insurance policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage, allowing them to be financially protected for property damage caused by either wind or water.”
Kevelighan added. “That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condo, renters or business insurance policy. Additionally, homeowners can make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system.”
