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TSR forecasts higher late season hurricane activity

1st June 2022 - Author: Matt Sheehan

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has maintained a forecast of above normal activity for the North Atlantic hurricane season activity, with a particular threat of enhanced activity late into the season.

florida-stormAnalysts predict there will be 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes this season, which would put it above average but at a lower level than the previous two years.

This is roughly in line with the NOAA’s forecast, which has a 70% chance of 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes.

But TSR points out that some Niño forecasts predict a slight strengthening of the current La Niña conditions through the autumn, which if verified, would increase the chance of enhanced late season activity.

“TSR’s latest update is consistent with the initial prediction of an active storm season,” said Nick Wood, Commercial Director of EuroTempest, which took over TSR from University College of London in April this year.

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“We consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be slightly warmer than normal by August-September 2022, and for weak La Niña conditions to persist through late summer and into the autumn,” Wood explained.

“This is likely to contribute to reduced trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Both these environmental factors are expected to enhance North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2022.”

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