2018 is looking likely to become the 11th year in a row that U.S economic losses from hail have exceeded $10 billion, a figure set to increase as population growth drives up potential for property and infrastructure damage.
Furthermore, in all decades since 1960, except for 2000 – 2009, insured losses from severe convective storms (SCS) have exceeded tropical cyclones – with hail accounting for roughly 80% of that.
According to experts speaking at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, the role of climate change on this trend is not yet conclusive.
“The effects of climate change on hail and the resulting damage are harder to calculate because hailstorms require distinct ingredients, and global warming affects them in different ways,” said Andreas Prein, a climate modelling scientist at the atmospheric research centre.
“We know pretty certain that we will have more people in the future, and they will have more stuff, and this stuff can be damaged. I think this component is more certain than what we can say about climate change at the moment.”
“Costs are rising in the U.S because homes are getting bigger, from about 1,700 square feet (139 square meters) in the early 1980s to 2,500 square feet (232 square meters) in 2015. New subdivisions also pack homes in more tightly,” added Giammanco.
Concurrently, assistant professor at Colorado State University, Kristen Rasmussen, said the combined effects of climate change will likely inhibit the number of weaker storms whilst increasing the number of severe ones.
“We actually think that’s why we’re seeing a decrease in the number of weak to moderate storms and an increase in the most severe storms,” said Rasmussen.
“If those storms are able to break through this inhibition, they have the potential to be more severe, and they can tap into more energy when they do so.”
