An above-normal level of tropical cyclone activity is projected for 2022 in the Atlantic basin, according to a forecast released by Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team anticipates 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes during the 2022 season, which starts on June 1st and continues through November 30th.
For comparison, a typical season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced the third-most named storms on record, with seven out of last year’s 21 named storms developing into hurricanes, and four reaching major hurricane intensity.
Eight named storms made US landfall last year, including Category 4 Hurricane Ida which battered the central Gulf Coast and then brought devastating flooding to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Research scientist Phil Klotzbach, who led the CSU forecast, says that the low probability of a significant El Niño in the Pacific, indicates another active Atlantic hurricane season is likely on the horizon, and there is an “above-average probability” for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastlines and in the Caribbean.
“While tropical Atlantic water temperatures are currently near their long-term averages, the warmer-than-normal subtropical eastern Atlantic typically forces a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions then lead to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” Klotzbach stated.
CSU’s 2022 forecast calls for a 71% chance of a major hurricane making a mainland US landfall, 47% for the US East Coast including the Florida peninsula, and 46% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida peninsula westward to Brownsville, Texas.
