Acrisure Re, the reinsurance arm of global fintech company Acrisure, forecasts slightly below-average activity for the upcoming 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, although CEO Simon Hedley stressed that the industry cannot be complacent, with preparedness and disciplined risk management remaining critical.
2025 was considered a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season, producing four major hurricanes, including three Category 5 hurricanes and the devastating impacts of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica.
Meanwhile, Acrisure Re reports that early indicators suggest the upcoming 2026 season is likely to experience activity hovering just below average.
While North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are not expected to reach the record-breaking levels observed in recent years, they remain above long-term averages across much of the basin, particularly in the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
At the same time, forecasters anticipate the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will develop into El Niño conditions through the peak of hurricane season, with several models indicating the potential for a strong event. These conditions typically increase upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic basin, creating a less favourable environment for hurricane development.
The combination of warmer-than-average Atlantic SSTs, a projected El Niño pattern, and other evolving atmospheric and oceanic factors points toward a marginally below-average hurricane season overall.
Despite the seasonal outlook, Simon Hedley, CEO of Acrisure Re, emphasised that hurricane forecasting remains inherently uncertain, with a broad range of potential outcomes still possible.
“While we anticipate a more moderate season compared to recent years, the industry cannot afford complacency,” said Hedley. “The lessons of recent hurricane seasons continue to reinforce that it only takes one major storm making landfall in a populated region to create significant human and economic loss. Preparedness and disciplined risk management remain critical.”
Acrisure Re’s internal forecasting model currently projects approximately 13 named storms during the 2026 season, compared to the long-term average of 14.
“Intraseasonal variability and shorter-term atmospheric patterns will continue to influence when and where storms develop throughout the season,” said Ming Li, Global Head of Cat Modeling at Acrisure Re. “Although overall activity may trend closer to average, elevated ocean temperatures in key regions mean the potential for rapid intensification and impactful landfalls remains a significant concern.”
