Catastrophe risk modelling specialist CoreLogic has released an updated loss estimate for Hurricane Florence, putting insured property losses for both residential and now commercial properties at between $3 billion and $5 billion.
CoreLogic previously said that Florence could threaten 758,657 residential home with a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $170.2 billion, and its updated estimate is also now more conservative than RMS’s earlier projection (based on modelled analysis of similar storms and current exposure) of $15 billion to $20 billion.
The new analysis accounts for damages from both wind and storm surge, but does not include insured losses related to rainfall, riverine or other flooding since the full rainfall footprint is an element in factoring total losses, the firm said.
As Florence’s wind speeds continue to slow to around 90mph (150km/h), intense volumes of rainfall and storm surges are expected to account for most of the storm’s damage, with officials warning of the potential for catastrophic flooding over the weekend.
The weakened category 1 storm was originally forecast to make landfall with higher sustained winds of 140mph, but has already caused storm surges of up to 10 feet in some areas of coast North Carolina.
CoreLogic said that, in its analysis, as many as 250,000 homes in North Carolina are projected to be affected by Hurricane Florence, although this does not factor in residential properties affected by inland flooding.