The cost of a once-in-200-year flood event could escalate by 42% to £5bn by the middle of the century under an intermediate emissions scenario, according to a new report from JBA Risk Management.
The report also finds that, in a scenario in which no actions were taken to reduce emissions, the UK could see a hike of up to 87% in average annual losses to residential properties, as well as a 120% increase in the cost of surface water floods, particularly in the south and east of the UK.
JBA’s UK Flood Model, includes two new climate scenarios representing intermediate and unmitigated warming by 2050, also shows that whilst river flooding remains the dominant risk from climate change, particularly in the west of the UK, the greatest change in flood losses comes from coastal flooding – with a 150% increase under a no-action scenario by 2050.
JBA says its model can help reinsurers and the wider financial sector understand how their portfolios will be impacted by flood risk under climate change.
“The model enables users to customise almost every model parameter, with reinsurers, insurers and brokers able to see the specific impacts on their own books and losses and investigate ‘what if?’ scenarios.”
