Hurricane Florence, currently a category 4 storm in strength with maximum sustained wind speeds of around 140 mph and higher gusts, is forecast to make a direct hit on the United States in North Carolina on Thursday or Friday.
Florence surprised the weather forecast models last week, travelling further west at lower latitudes lining up the possibility of a U.S. east coast landfall, having originally been expected to curve to the north.
According to reports, life-threatening impacts are possible, however, meteorological conditions imply that loss potential is shifting from just the impacts of hurricane force winds to water.
With an impactful loss event now looking certain, the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center is sure to keep insurance, reinsurance, and also insurance-linked securities (ILS) interests on high alert over the next 48 hours or more.
Currently a category 4, Florence is a growing storm and could fluctuate in strength in the hours prior to landfall, before the eye comes ashore somewhere around the Wilmington region of North Carolina.
Reports state that hurricane force winds extend outwards up to 60 miles from the center of hurricane Florence, with tropical storm force winds extending outwards 175 miles.
While there is potential for the storm to increase in strength, it is also possible that Florence will weaken as it interacts with the coast.
A major concern with storm Florence is storm surge, with up to 13 foot, or 4 metres possible, and, given the convex shape of the Carolina coastline this could be exacerbated if the storm’s approach is slow, pushing water onto land.
