Global insured losses from natural catastrophes reached an estimated USD $42 billion in the first half of 2026, according to Swiss Re Institute, the research arm of global reinsurance company Swiss Re.
The figure was down sharply from USD $91 billion in the first half of 2025 and was 16% below the 10-year first-half average of USD $50 billion, although Swiss Re said the lower loss total does not mean catastrophe risk has diminished.
Total insured losses from all events stood at USD $48 billion in H1 2026, compared with USD $98 billion in H1 2025 and a USD $56 billion 10-year first-half average.
Of the USD $48 billion recorded this year, USD $42 billion came from natural catastrophes and USD $6 billion from man-made events.
In H1 2025, the respective figures were USD $91 billion and USD $7 billion, while the 10-year averages were USD $50 billion for natural catastrophes and USD $6 billion for man-made events.
Swiss Re stated that severe convective storms were the largest contributor to natural catastrophe insured losses during the first half, accounting for an estimated USD $28 billion. Storm activity across the US remained above average, but many of the most significant outbreaks avoided Texas, the Southern Plains and the Southeast, where high concentrations of insured assets can result in particularly large claims.
This demonstrates that insured losses are influenced not only by the severity and frequency of events, but also by where they occur and the level of exposure in affected areas.
Balz Grollimund, Head Catastrophe Perils at Swiss Re, commented: “A less costly first half of the year does not mean the risk has gone away. One major hurricane, earthquake or wildfire can quickly change the picture. Europe’s recent wildfires highlight how hotter and drier conditions are making large wildfires more likely and, with more homes, businesses and infrastructure built in risk-exposed areas, also more costly.”
Swiss Re noted Europe’s recent weather conditions illustrate some of the longer-term changes affecting catastrophe risk. The company reported that Europe now experiences 64% more hot days, defined as days when the daily maximum temperature reaches 30°C or more, than in the 1950s.
Record heat across western Europe in June, combined with persistent dry conditions, created conditions more favourable to wildfires, according to Swiss Re. Major fires subsequently affected France and Spain in July.
Swiss Re said wildfire has so far represented a relatively small share of insured losses in Europe, but is the fastest-growing weather peril globally. Its research shows that insured wildfire losses in Europe have increased by an estimated 8–11% a year in real terms since 1970.
The company said the changing wildfire pattern is reflected in longer fire seasons, more frequent conditions conducive to fires and increasing impacts in regions that have historically been less exposed.
Swiss Re also reported that natural catastrophes generated an estimated USD $100 billion in economic losses during the first half of 2026. This compares with USD $152 billion in H1 2025 and a USD $111 billion 10-year first-half average.
Across both natural catastrophes and man-made events, total economic losses were estimated at USD $107 billion in H1 2026, compared with USD $160 billion in H1 2025 and a USD $119 billion 10-year average.
Insurance covered around 42% of first-half economic losses, above the 30-year average of 33%, according to Swiss Re. The company said this reflected the concentration of losses in highly insured markets and across perils with relatively broad insurance coverage.
The difference between economic and insured losses was particularly evident in Venezuela, where an earthquake sequence generated an estimated USD $20 billion in economic losses. Swiss Re said a reliable insured-loss estimate was not yet available, but low insurance penetration meant only a small proportion of the damage was expected to be insured.
The relatively low natural catastrophe insured-loss figure for the first half should also be viewed against the historical distribution of losses during the year. On average, 58% of global insured natural catastrophe losses occur during the second half, with North Atlantic hurricanes being a major contributor.
The company said El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, but do not eliminate the possibility of US landfalls. Swiss Re noted that 22% of US hurricane landfalls since 1950 occurred during El Niño conditions.
Swiss Re added that hurricanes are only one component of second-half catastrophe risk. El Niño can influence tropical cyclone activity in the Central and East Pacific and may also affect the risk of floods, wildfires and other weather extremes in other regions.
Looking beyond seasonal conditions, Swiss Re said the longer-term factors behind catastrophe losses remain in place. Increasing concentrations of homes, businesses and infrastructure in hazard-prone areas are increasing exposure, while rising reconstruction costs can add to the financial impact when disasters occur.
Swiss Re concluded that strengthening resilience and reducing underlying risk will therefore be increasingly important in maintaining the affordability and availability of insurance.
