CoreLogic has released data analysis showing that more than one million single-family and multifamily homes along the Florida gulf coast with a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of approximately $258.3bn are at potential risk of storm surge damage from Hurricane Ian.
Hurricane Ian has now reached major Category 3 status with 125 mph sustained winds, and with a shift further east in the NHC’s forecast cone overnight, the storm looks set to pass very close to the Tampa Bay area with the potential to make landfall.
There’s a far greater chance of significant storm surge, which will be concerning for insurers and reinsurers as the Tampa Bay area is home to many low-lying properties on its coast. Additionally, inlets and the shape of the coastline make it more exposed to storm surges.
Add to this the fact that Tampa Bay and the surrounding area is a very high-value part of the coast, and it’s clear that there’s some significant property values at-risk from hurricane Ian’s winds and surge.
Experimental Storm Surge Forecast
Dr Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic noted, “Hurricane Ian has all the ingredients you need for a bad storm surge event.”
“Due to Hurricane Ian’s slower speed and rapid intensification in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the threat of a widening wind field bringing damaging storm surge increases each day.”
He added, “Many homes along Florida’s western coast are at risk of storm surge inundation regardless of where the storm makes landfall, and even more homeowners will contend with heavy rainfall and hurricane-force winds throughout mid-week.”
The RCV figures assume 100% destruction of all at-risk homes and are not a representation of expected damages, says CoreLogic.
As Hurricane Ian approaches Florida its path will become more certain and the metropolitan areas at risk will narrow.
The analysts add that these figures assume Hurricane Ian makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane and are based on the National Hurricane Centre forecast from September 26, 2022.
