Significant pressure would be required to push reinsurance pricing to change direction from a continued easing to a hardening signal, nevertheless, the consensus at the 2026 Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous de Septembre (RVS) was that pricing remains adequate, according to Berenberg.
At RVS 2026, Berenberg analysts met with representatives of Hannover Re, Hiscox, Munich Re, SCOR, Swiss Re, UNIQA, and Howden Insurance.
Berenberg said a key takeaway from discussions with representatives of these firms is that the general trend of softening prices is likely to continue.
“While more detailed pricing discussions between primaries and reinsurers tend to take place later in the year, the fact that supply still exceeds demand, along with the absence of material large primary insured perils this year, points to a likely continuation of pricing declines at the January 2027 renewals,” analysts said.
For instance, Howden Re emphasised that a significant amount of pressure would be required to overcome today’s strong starting position.
“Howden Re estimates that a $200 billion insured catastrophe (cat) loss year, alongside elevated attritional losses, adverse casualty reserves and an upward shock in interest rates, could push pricing to change direction, moving from a continued easing to a hardening signal,” noted Berenberg.
Nevertheless, Berenberg highlighted that the general consensus is that pricing remains adequate.
“Beyond property cat, pricing is likely to be stable/slightly increasing in casualty due to social inflation, while speciality (albeit a broad market) remains competitive and is likely to see modest pricing pressures, due to excess capacity in the market,” said analysts.
The Atlantic hurricane season does not end until November 30, and, as ever, it only takes one storm hitting the wrong place to drive significant industry losses. Earthquakes remain an ever-present threat, while there is also the potential for other perils, or losses from outside the property cat space, to influence the direction of the market. But, as things stand, there is a clear expectation of further softening at the upcoming renewals, making discipline key as reinsurers look to maintain margins.
