The Baldwin Group, a Nasdaq-listed independent insurance distribution and solutions provider, has released its third-quarter 2026 Market Pulse report, offering an overview of commercial insurance pricing trends across its portfolio as at 30 September 2026.
The report indicates that the decline in commercial property insurance rates has begun to level off, while casualty insurance continues to experience contrasting pricing patterns across different lines. According to The Baldwin Group, the findings highlight the importance of tailoring renewal strategies to the specific conditions affecting each type of cover.
The company reported an 8.0% reduction in commercial property pricing during Q3 2026, closely matching the 8.1% decrease recorded in the previous quarter.
This represents the sixth consecutive quarter of falling rates, although the latest figures indicate that the pace of decline has stopped accelerating. In contrast, casualty insurance pricing remains mixed, with some lines recording slower increases and others continuing to face firmer conditions.
“Property is no longer getting softer faster, but it is still delivering real opportunity for buyers who come to renewal with current valuations and strong loss control documentation,” commented Leslie Nylund, National Managing Director of Broking and Insurance Company Partnerships at The Baldwin Group. “The mistake would be to apply that same optimism to casualty, where the drivers of loss severity have not changed and excess pricing is holding firm. Our clients benefit most when we look at each line on its own terms.”
The Baldwin Group’s analysis found that commercial motor insurance pricing rose by 2.9% in the third quarter, compared with increases of 4.5% in Q2 and 5.7% in Q1. The latest figure represents the lowest quarterly increase since the company’s index was established in Q3 2021.
General liability pricing also continued to moderate. According to The Baldwin Group, rates increased by 3.5% in Q3, down from 4.5% in the preceding quarter and 6.1% in Q1. This marks the third successive quarterly reduction in the rate of increase since general liability pricing peaked at 9.3% in Q4 2025.
Umbrella insurance followed a different pattern, with pricing rising by 5.6% in Q3 after a 5.0% increase in Q2. Although the latest figure was higher than the previous quarter’s reading, it remained below the 8.2% increase recorded in Q1. The Baldwin Group attributed this trend to continued firmness in excess insurance pricing, even as conditions ease across primary coverage lines.
Workers’ compensation pricing remained broadly unchanged, declining by just 0.1% in Q3. This represents a smaller reduction than the 0.3% recorded in Q2 and the 1.0% fall in Q1. The Baldwin Group’s findings suggest that the downward movement in this segment may be nearing its limit, with pricing approaching a stable level.
Management liability also showed differences between market segments. The Baldwin Group reported that pricing for private company management liability increased by 3.1% in Q3, compared with 0.9% in Q2. By comparison, pricing for directors’ and officers’ cover for publicly listed companies fell by 1.8%, maintaining the same rate of decline as in the previous quarter.
Cyber insurance pricing moved higher during the quarter, increasing by 2.0% compared with 0.4% in Q2. The Baldwin Group noted that this was the strongest quarterly reading since early 2023, indicating a change from the more limited increases seen earlier in the year.
For the final quarter of 2026, The Baldwin Group anticipates further reductions in property insurance pricing, although late-season storm activity remains a factor that could influence market conditions. The company expects businesses with favourable claims records, up-to-date property valuations and thorough risk management documentation to be better placed to negotiate increased coverage limits and wider policy terms.
The outlook for casualty insurance is less consistent, according to The Baldwin Group. Businesses with clean claims histories and comprehensive risk documentation could benefit from stronger competition among insurers. However, organisations operating in higher-risk sectors or facing greater exposure to litigation are likely to encounter more persistent pricing pressures.
The company also expects the effects of tort reform on insurance pricing to remain limited in the near term, with any material changes unlikely before 2027. The casualty reinsurance renewals scheduled for 1 January will be another important factor in assessing the future direction of excess insurance rates.
Nylund continued: “Casualty is on a fundamentally different trajectory than property. Social inflation, litigation funding, nuclear verdicts and emerging liabilities are making traditional underwriting assumptions less reliable. The result is a market defined by micro-segmentation, where coverage breadth, jurisdiction, industry exposure and loss history drive very different renewal outcomes.”
