As the scope of damage from the California wildfires Camp and Woolsey continues to be assessed, catastrophe risk modeller CoreLogic has updated its total residential and commercial loss estimate to between $15 billion and $19 billion.
According to its new property data analysis, losses from the Camp Fire, the most destructive wildfire in the state’s history, is estimated to be between $11 billion and $13 billion.
Of this figure, residential property losses account for between $8 billion to $9 billion while $3 billion to $4 billion is attributable to commercial property loss.
Meanwhile, the loss from the Woolsey Fire in Southern California is estimated to be an additional $4 billion to $6 billion.
Of this figure, residential property losses accounts for between $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion, with up to $500 million attributable to commercial property loss.
This compares to RMS’ $9 billion to $13 billion estimate of re/insurance market losses between and Aon’s statement that the economic cost of the wildfires would “minimally exceed” $10 billion “if not much higher.”
CoreLogic states that these figures have been refined in accordance with the latest post-containment perimeter of both the Camp and Woolsey Fires.
Corelogic told us that the uninsured portion of their estimate is expected to be small, suggesting the majority will be covered.
Furthermore, analysis of both residential and commercial properties accounts for building, content, and Additional Living Expenses (ALE), and the estimated losses include fire, smoke, demand surge and debris removal.
When considering where the final insured loss figure for will end up, it’s important to consider that loss estimates such as this one by CoreLogic does not take into consideration losses from lines such as auto, which will undoubtedly prove extremely costly.
“These wildfires have been a personal and financial tragedy for many families,” Tom Larsen, principal, Industry Solutions said.
“The proper estimation of the value of a home is critical because often in situations of wildfire, the home is completely lost. A deficient valuation can lead to a situation where homeowners have inadequate funding to replace their home.”