The insured losses from Winter Storms Dudley/Ylenia and Eunice/Zeynep will fall somewhere between €3bn and €5bn, according to Verisk Extreme Event Solutions, with the majority of expected to be within Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands.
According to the company, the industry loss estimates also reflect an adjustment to account for increased material and other repair costs in the current construction market. Verisk estimates losses could be 10–15% or more above the modeled results. This adjustment accounts for the increased cost of construction during 2021.
Dr. Marc Marcella, principal scientist at Verisk, said: “In the wake of Dudley/Ylenia, Storm Eunice/Zeynep brought more high winds, leading to widespread reports of wind damage to homes and businesses in the UK and continental Europe, including roofs torn off. In addition, the roofs of an arena in London and another in the Hague were damaged severely.”
He added: “Extreme wind speeds in London are relatively rare. Transportation of all types, including hundreds of domestic and international flights and rail, and road travel, was disrupted in the UK and continental Europe.”
Verisk said that damage due to coastal flooding was relatively insignificant for this event, although high water levels and storm surge inundation were experienced in several locations, in particular along the German North Sea coastline, and near river mouths, where surge levels approached 3 meters.
The company is the latest to put out its estimates on the financial costs of the storms that battered Europe a few weeks ago. PwC recently estimated that Dudley would drive between £40m and £75m of insured losses in Britain alone, while actuarial consultancy Meyerthole Siems Kohlruss (MSK) believed the costs in Germany would be around €500m.
With Storm Eunice, PwC said UK insured losses from this second storm would likely be between £200m and £350m, again caused mainly by property damage, business interruption, and travel disruption.
And in Germany, MSK saw the insured loss as being around the €900m mark, with damages comparable to what had been seen following Storm Friederike in 2018.
Siems warned that Zeynep could even approach Friederike’s eventual insured loss total of €1.2bn, depending on the inflation rate and increases in construction prices.
