A report released today by global catastrophe risk modeller CoreLogic has identified more than 7.3 million single and multi-family homes along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts with the potential for storm surge damage.
The total estimated reconstruction cost value (RCV) – calculated using the combined cost of construction materials as well as equipment and labour – of these homes would total close to $1.8 trillion, CoreLogic says.
These latest figures represent an increase from the same report by CoreLogic in 2018.
Analysis at the time showed more than 6.9 million homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts were at risk of hurricane storm surge inundation, with a combined RCV of over $1.6 trillion.
This difference, however, could be down to the inclusion of multi-family structures, which include apartments, condominiums and multi-unit dwellings.
In its latest report, Corelogic has found the Atlantic Coast to contain 57% of the total homes at risk of storm surge flooding, and 62.7% of the total RCV.
The region has more than 4.1 million homes at risk of storm surge with an RCV of over $1.1 trillion.
Conversely, the Gulf Coast has been determined to contain 43% of the homes at risk and 37.3% of the total RCV. The region has nearly 3.1 million homes at risk with over $668 billion in potential exposure to total destruction damage.
“It is essential to understand and evaluate the total hazard exposure of properties at risk of storm surge prior to a hurricane event, so insurers can better protect and restore property owners from financial catastrophe,” said Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic.
“Damage from storm surge and inland flooding has proven to be far more destructive than wind in recent years, so we cannot rely on the hurricane category alone to give us a sense of the potential loss. A Category 5 hurricane in an area with few structures may be far less devastating than a Category 1 hurricane in a densely populated area.”
Florida, Louisiana, New York and Texas were found to have the greatest number of homes at risk of storm surge.
Florida also has the most exposure to storm surge flooding, with more than 2.9 million homes at risk, and has the highest RCV at over $603 billion.
The New York, Newark and Jersey City metro area was found to have the greatest risk of storm surge with just over 831,000 homes at risk and RCV of over $330 billion.
Early predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate a near-normal year for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
The NOAA’s outlook had previously forecast a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season, which officially runs from June 1st to November 30th, 2019.
