Allianz Commercial, the corporate insurance division of Allianz Group, has emphasised that marine insurers are operating in an increasingly complex environment as global shipping, responsible for around 90% of international trade by volume, faces heightened geopolitical and operational pressures.
In its latest Safety and Shipping Review, Allianz Commercial points to recent disruption in key waterways, including the Strait of Hormuz, as part of a broader escalation in risks affecting global maritime routes.
The company notes that this evolving situation is contributing to higher insurance uncertainty, with insurers responding through increased risk pricing, closer scrutiny of transit exposures, and a stronger emphasis on resilience in underwriting strategies.
Allianz Commercial characterises the direction of travel as a shift towards a more security-sensitive operating environment for global shipping, where protection of assets and continuity of trade flows is becoming as significant as cost efficiency.
According to Allianz Commercial, conflict-related disruption in the Middle East has had a direct impact on marine insurance exposure, particularly for hull and cargo cover. The company reports that approximately 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels above 100 gross tonnes, with an estimated combined value of around USD $125 billion in ships and cargo and a capacity of roughly 29 million gross tonnes, have been held in the Persian Gulf awaiting the resumption of normal operations following recent diplomatic progress.
Allianz Commercial highlights that up to 20,000 seafarers have been affected by prolonged delays and heightened security risks, underlining the human and operational dimensions that insurers must consider alongside financial exposure. While marine insurance cover has remained available throughout the period, Allianz Commercial notes that premiums have risen, reflecting increased perceived risk.
It also suggests that, for shipowners and insurers alike, the primary concern has centred less on the availability of cover and more on the safety of vessels and crews transiting potentially volatile waters.
The company adds that even if diplomatic arrangements support the reopening of key routes, sustained international coordination would likely be required to restore confidence and support a return to pre-disruption traffic levels, which can reach around 140 vessels daily.
Alongside geopolitical volatility, Allianz Commercial reports that the wider insurance picture is shaped by longer-term improvements in maritime safety performance. Over the past decade, the company records more than 900 total vessel losses globally for ships above 100 gross tonnes.
Between 2016 and 2020, there were 555 total losses, averaging 111 per year, compared with 350 between 2021 and 2025, averaging 70 annually. Allianz Commercial attributes this reduction, in part, to improved safety standards and operational risk management across the shipping sector, although it notes that significant losses continue to occur.
The insurer also reports a decline in overall shipping incidents, which fell by around 16% in 2025 compared with the previous year, from 3,353 to 2,818. Despite this improvement, Allianz Commercial highlights that claims exposure remains material, particularly in certain regions.
The East Mediterranean and Black Sea recorded the highest number of incidents at 622, followed closely by the British Isles at 619, which also represents the highest concentration of incidents over the past decade. Machinery failure remains the leading cause of loss events, accounting for over half of all incidents at 1,505, with collisions and fires on large vessels also continuing to generate significant insurance claims.
In particular, Allianz Commercial notes that fires involving container ships and car carriers remain a persistent concern, with more than 200 incidents recorded in 2025 alone, contributing to multiple total losses.
The company also draws attention to the growing scale of modern vessels, which is influencing the frequency and complexity of general average claims. Allianz Commercial explains that these claims arise when shipowners and cargo interests share extraordinary costs incurred to preserve a voyage in distress, and they are becoming increasingly complex and costly due to higher cargo values and larger shipments.
In some cases, contributions can reach up to 50% of cargo value, meaning that single incidents involving high-value cargo, such as electric vehicles, can result in claims exceeding USD $100 million.
Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial, commented: “Our analysis shows the shipping industry has made significant improvements in maritime safety in recent years. However, it has also undergone a fundamental transformation, from decades of relative stability, defined by steady trade flows and largely predictable operating conditions to becoming increasingly complex and volatile.
“The Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure is just the latest in a series of severe interruptions to hit shipowners and cargo operators. Resilience, geopolitics, and efficiency must be balanced in an increasingly unpredictable world, where the cost of uncertainty is reshaping the shipping industry.”
Captain Rahul Khanna, Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial, said: “We are seeing growing uncertainty around shipping routes. Any type of event – a conflict, pandemic or a grounded vessel blocking a key port or shipping canal – can potentially cause a major disruption to shipping and supply chains.
“The events in the Middle East have been more impactful than many would have expected. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sets a dangerous precedent and raises questions around the long-term future of this and other critical chokepoints. What is becoming clear is that we have to pay a price for uncertainty, shifting from ‘just-in-time’ to ‘just-in-case’ supply chains, and prioritising resilience over cost efficiency.”
Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader Marine Hull at Allianz Commercial, added: “Insurance markets react quickly to crises, but the real challenge for companies is understanding how risks are interconnected. That’s why resilience and risk management are becoming just as important as insurance coverage.
“The shipping industry is facing turbulent times, not only from geopolitical instability, but also from traditional hull and machinery risks, where we see claims costs continue to rise, as well as from decarbonisation and fleet renewal challenges. Our role as an insurer is to support our clients as both a risk carrier and a resilience partner to mitigate risks before they become a damaging loss event.”
