Most agencies and meteorological organisations are forecasting near-average hurricane activity in the North Atlantic in 2018, although variations in individual predictions could lead to a wide range of forecasts, according to risk modelling and analytics firm RMS.
Forecasts generally anticipate neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, and near-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic main development region over the August to October period.
Several forecast groups, including CSU, TSR, AccuWeather, and WeatherTiger also predicted near average hurricane landfalls along the U.S coastline as part of their preseason activity forecasts.
CSU estimated that the probability of a named storm making landfall in the contiguous U.S is 96%, while the probability of one or more hurricanes making landfall was 84% and the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall was 52%.
WeatherTiger forecast a 90% chance of at least one tropical storm making landfall in the U.S, a 70% chance of at least one hurricane landfall, and a 30% chance of a major hurricane landfall, while AccuWeather predicted three to four named U.S storm landfalls.
TSR predicted that one hurricane and two tropical storms would make landfall over the U.S, and expected the U.S Landfalling ACE Index to be well below average at 0.5.
Similarly, TSR predicted that zero hurricanes and one tropical storm would impact the Caribbean Lesser Antilles, with the region’s Landfalling ACE Index also expected to be below average.
However, RMS noted that landfall forecasts historically demonstrate low skill, as storm tracks tend to be highly sensitive to local atmospheric and oceanic conditions and weather patterns, and suggested that it may only take one landfalling storm to cause significant loss and damage.
RMS also observed that one name storm has already made landfall in the U.S this year, with Subtropical Storm Alberto hitting Florida on May 25.
Alberto marks the fourth consecutive year that a named storm has formed before the official start of the North Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.
