Hurricane Florence has brought record-breaking levels of rainfall to the Carolinas since making landfall on Thursday night, with analysts at catastrophe modelling firm Risk Management Solutions (RMS) estimating that some areas may experience rainfall exceeding a 1,000-year return period.
Hurricane Florence floodwaters submerge Engelhard, North Carolina. Source: Steve Helber/AP
Florence continued to batter the North and South Carolina coasts over the weekend with 10 foot storm surges, hurricane or tropical storm force winds, and up to 40 inches (100cm) of rainfall.
The centre of the storm is still moving slowly over North Carolina, but analysts expect it to accelerate north before heading towards New England on Tuesday.
17 people have been killed so far in storm-related incidents and almost 650,000 homes remain without power, while Wilmington in North Carolina has become almost inaccessible due to flooding.
Many rivers in the affected areas are also expected to crest as the flooding continues to intensify over the next few days, while officials have also warned of the potential for dangerous landslides.
Initial projections put re/insured losses from Hurricane Florence at around $20 billion, but estimates have been more moderate since the Category 4 storm abated to Category 1 during its approach.
Florence has now weakened to a tropical depression with wind speeds of just 35mph (55km/h), according to the National Hurricane Centre, with intense prolonged rainfall now presenting the primary hazard.
“It is the sheer amount of rainfall and the risk of storm surge, together with the glacial pace in Florence’s movement means that severe conditions will be prolonged for several days,” explained RMS.
Wind and storm surge damage are still expected to cause billions of dollars of damage, but reinsurance industry analysts agree that losses will be manageable and will constitute “an earnings event, not a capital event.”
A recent analysis by The Buckingham Research Group, which looked at market structure and penetration, the NFIP, and state windstorm pools, also estimated that reinsurers might only assume 15% to 20% of the Hurricane Florence exposure, based on a $10 billion insured loss.
Evacuation orders currently remain in place for more than 1.7 million people across North and South Carolina, with around 15,000 currently staying in emergency shelters.
