Storm surge from Hurricane Michael, which is projected to make landfall in Florida as a Category 3 storm this week, threatens up to 57,000 homes in the state, according to early estimates from catastrophe risk modelling firm CoreLogic.
Although CoreLogic has not provided an estimate for insured or reinsured losses, it said that the total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of homes at potential risk of storm surge was $13.4 billion, based on a Category 3 landfall.
However, it is worth noting that the RCV figure assumes 100% destruction of all at-risk homes and represents a worst case scenario.
Hurricane Michael recently passed Cuba and is expected to strengthen rapidly over the next 24 hours, growing to windspeeds of around 120mph (the mid range of Category 3), according to data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
CoreLogic explained that hurricane-driven storm surge can cause significant property damage when high winds and low pressure cause water to amass inside a storm, releasing a powerful rush over land when the hurricane moves ashore.
Early warnings for Hurricane Michael show that some areas of Florida could see up to 12-foot storm surges, while recent NHC forecasts indicate parts of Florida and adjacent Gulf Coast states could see up to 12 inches of rain.
CoreLogic added that Michael’s size and path could change over the coming days and said that it would update its figures to reflect any change in path and intensity.
