New analysis from Goldman Sachs on Q2 2026 catastrophe events, drawing on data from insurance brokers and catastrophe modelling firms, estimates global insured catastrophe losses at approximately $24 billion, with primary insurers expected to absorb the majority of the impact.
According to the firm, the $24 billion Q2 2026 estimate represents approximately 65–70% of the five-year quarterly average.
By region, it equates to roughly 85–90% of the five-year average U.S. catastrophe loss burden ($21 billion), alongside a significantly below-average international catastrophe load ($3 billion).
“International loss activity remains favourable, as Europe continues to see limited H1 windstorm and flooding activity, which is the primary driver of insured losses outside of the U.S. historically,” Goldman Sachs observed.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Q2 2026 catastrophe load almost entirely reflects losses from severe convective storms (SCS).
Goldman Sachs commented, “We expect primary insurers will bear the brunt of this quarter’s loss events, as the size of each event is not overly material, and SCS losses are historically retained by primary insurers.”
The firm noted that the most material natural catastrophe losses are expected to stem from a series of severe weather events, based on insured loss estimates from Gallagher Re.
These include mid- and late-April SCS outbreaks, as well as the April 23–29 events. In addition, the June 1–17 SCS activity is estimated by Gallagher Re to contribute mid-single-digit billions in losses on a cumulative basis.
As mentioned, the international loss contribution remains comparatively contained.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that the earthquake in the Philippines is likely to be one of the largest insured natural catastrophe events outside the U.S., while damage from the Venezuela earthquake is expected to have a limited impact on U.S. insurers and reinsurers due to sanctions, with broker Aon recently noting that insured losses are expected to represent only a small fraction of the broader economic loss total.
