Re/insurers could see increased demand for terror coverage across Europe in 2017, as the emerging geopolitical landscape shows the year will bring heightened and shifting terror threats.
The largest provider of terrorism reinsurance cover in the UK, Pool Re, has issued a report listing the key terrorist themes for 2017 as: the rise of an online Caliphate, Al Qaeda moving underground and spreading, extremist fighters returning to their European homeland and the development of chemical warfare expertise.
Pool Re Chief Executive, Julian Enoizi, said; “The terrorist threat to the United Kingdom remains SEVERE. This report not only emphasises the level of risk our nation faces, but also the widening spectrum of attack methods to which terrorists have access. It also highlights how the terrorism landscape is evolving. The main driver for this threat continues to be Islamist extremism.”
The insurer reports that after the military defeat of Daesh in Iraq and Syria, the group is moving underground, using the Dark Web as a propaganda space to spread its ideology and create a ‘virtual caliphate’.
Enoizi continued; “it’s likely… they will look to increasingly establish themselves in ungoverned spaces such as the dark web, creating a virtual caliphate. In tandem with this is the potential reassertion of AQ as the dominant global terrorist group.
Pool Re said fighters with extremist ideology, conflict experience and knowledge in tactics like chemical warfare and drones returning to their European home countries posed an additional threat, “and whilst so much international attention has been focused on Daesh, al Qaeda has been quietly rebuilding its capabilities.”
Increasing numbers of terrorists radicalised through the web, together with returning fighters, mean European nations and entities will have to take extra measures to insure themselves on multiple levels against the growing threat.
The report said a worst case scenario could see Daesh and the prefigured Al Qaeda join forces: “Daesh is operating across Europe and the reduction of the so-called Caliphate will free up human capacity,* financial, and technical resources to attack Western targets.”
With authorities already on high-alert, attacks are likely to avoid advance detection through using low-sophistication tools, such as vehicles or other make-shift weapons, as was used during the German Christmas market attack.
According to Pool Re the attacks of 2016 have demonstrated; “the capabilities of Daesh to exploit the Internet, including the Dark Web, and instant messaging services to share their ideology, attack planning and post-incident propaganda.
“This is likely to cause MI5 and the police to face an increase in UK attack planning investigations.”
The use of chemical agents in terror attacks on Western Europe poses a further major threat in 2017, according to research by Pool Re, which states that extremist groups are already increasingly using these in the Middle East and parts of Africa and this, “combined with on-line knowledge transfer, raises the probability of their use against Western targets.”
Pool Re Chief Executive, Enoizi concluded that; “by enhancing our understanding of these threats which our economy faces and providing a resource to inform risk modelling and management, we can ensure that we are better positioned to resist and respond to them.”
And a proper response to these emerging risks will mean that for customers, as well as insurance and reinsurance firms, demand for terrorism coverage is likely to grow and reinsurance capacity will be increasingly needed as a key component to solve the current terror protection gap.
