Hurricane Dorian has continued to slow as it tracks over the Bahamas and towards the US, with dangerous hurricane-force winds expected to batter the length of the east coast throughout the whole week.
The storm is still maintaining Category 5 strength, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 155mph, but is currently inching westward at a pace of about 1mph, meaning the devastating conditions will be prolonged for the Bahamas and much of the US coast.
While the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggest that Dorian will not make landfall in the US, the storm looks set to hug the coastline right through till Saturday, when it will almost be level with Rhode Island.
Hurricane-force winds are expected to be sustained during this time, with Cat 1 wind speeds of 86mph and gusts of 104mph predicted even as late as next weekend.
Additionally, with Dorian set to hover around the east coast of Florida until late on Wednesday, there is a very real possibility that the storm could once again change trajectory and make landfall in the state.
“It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the hurricane warning area,” a statement from the NHC cautioned.
“In addition, Dorian’s wind field is predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change.”
With maximum wind speeds of up to 185mph over the weekend, Dorian is the second strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind only Hurricane Allen in 1980.
While the insurance and reinsurance industry will certainly be relieved that the outlook for the US has improved so dramatically over the last few days, the possibility of Dorian stalling or changing course will likely keep tensions high throughout the week.
Late last week, the most likely scenario put Dorian Late last week, the most likely scenario put Dorian landfalling in the high-value area around West Palm Beach in Florida, before turning north and tracking up across the state, causing damage across a wide area.
Analysts at Credit Suisse put re/insurance industry losses in the range of $10 billion to $30 billion, based on this forecast.
However, with hurricane force winds extending 45 miles out from Dorian’s centre, the US coastline could still face devastating winds and storm surge even if the more optimistic forecast holds out.
Dorian is reported to have cause “unprecedented destruction” in the Bahamas, according to Prime Minister Hubert Minnis, with the International Red Cross suggesting that some 13,000 homes may have already been damaged or destroyed by the storm.
The hurricane is the most powerful to have ever made landfall in the Bahamas, and is expected to continue battering Grand Bahama Island with catastrophic winds and storm surge through the rest of Monday and overnight.
Although the devastation in the Bahamas will not be as impactful to the re/insurance market as a US landfall, Dorian will likely have a staggering impact on lives and communities in the area.
In the US, the states of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina have all declared states of emergency, with evacuation orders for millions of people in effect.
Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis warned residents not to become complacent following the change in the storm’s predicted path, adding: “This storm at this magnitude could really cause massive destruction.”
“Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian’s center,” a statement from the NHC said.
“Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds,” he added. “Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.”
The Center also warned of heavy rains capable of producing life-threatening flash floods for sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the US into Friday.
