Munich Re meteorologist and climate expert Anja Rädler said the 2026 cyclone season outlook is clearer than in recent years, with El Niño conditions expected to contribute to a slightly weaker Atlantic hurricane season while increasing the likelihood of a more active typhoon season in the western Pacific.
However, according to Rädler, even in quieter seasons, “very serious” events can always occur that are impossible to predict.
“In order to minimise losses, the focus must be on prevention. As history has shown, even a single storm can produce massive losses,” she added.
Based on the average of estimates from leading research institutes, Munich Re said that around 12 or 13 named cyclones will likely form in the tropical North Atlantic.
As per the global reinsurer, roughly five or six of these could develop into hurricanes, including two potentially major hurricanes with wind speeds of over 110 mph.
On the other hand, conditions are reportedly conducive to the formation of typhoons in the Northwest Pacific, which are more likely to hit Japan, the Greater China region or Korea.
“This is due to the natural climate pattern ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) in the Pacific, which influences the frequency and severity of weather disasters in many regions of the world through its long-range effects,” Munich Re explained.
The firm continued, “An El Niño phase is forecast to begin this summer, bringing anomalously warm sea surface temperatures to Central and Eastern equatorial Pacific.
“By the end of the year, the phenomenon will likely intensify into a rarely seen “Super El Niño” – a term used to describe events where sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific exceed 2°C, increasing potential global impacts.”
Anja Rädler, Meteorologist and climate expert at Munich Re, commented, “Unlike in previous years, the outlook for this cyclone season is relatively clear: given the El Niño conditions, we can expect to see a slightly weaker hurricane season and a stronger typhoon season.
“However, even in quieter seasons, there can always be very serious events that are impossible to predict. In order to minimise losses, the focus must be on prevention. As history has shown, even a single storm can produce massive losses.”
