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AbsoluteClimo announces new cat model, predicts $153bn losses in 2019

20th February 2019 - Author: Matt Sheehan

AbsoluteClimo, a Hawaii-based climate modelling, forecasting and risk management company, has announced a new catastrophe risk model that is predicting global climate-driven cat losses of $153 billion in 2019.

The new model, called Clim๏Cats, utilises AbsoluteClimo’s machine learning predictive engine to link climate physics – such as temperature, rainfall and wind – with perils resulting in casualty and financial losses driven by climate change and variability.

It will predict casualty and loss data for a variety of events, including global total climate-driven cat losses; U.S hurricane, tornado, flood, hail/wind/lightning, and wildfire; Australian weather and climate events; European flood; Japanese typhoon; and Chinese typhoon.

ClimoCats’ estimate for global cat losses in 2019 is based on a probability range of $90 billion (best) to $257 billion (worst) and average annual losses of $165 billion.

absoluteclimo-2019-catastrophe-loss-prediction-table

The firm claims to have correctly predicted the direction of losses compared to the average for the previous two years using the ClimoCats model.

“Our risk modeling prowess and forecast skill speak for themselves,” said Brendan Lane Larson, Co-Founder of AbsoluteClimo. “We are results oriented. What really sets AbsoluteClimo apart is our human talent: a rare combination of decades of research lab experience and forecast practitioner skill.”

“Most climate model researchers and developers don’t have the sometimes painful experiences gained from putting their own models into practice or for their own businesses as entrepreneurs,” he continued. “I’m very proud of our global team which spans hemispheres and continents, from sea to shining sea.”

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